Volume 18, Number 8—August 2012
Research
Comparison of Enzootic Risk Measures for Predicting West Nile Disease, Los Angeles, California, USA, 2004–2010
Jennifer L. Kwan, Bborie K. Park, Tim E. Carpenter, Van Ngo, Rachel Civen, and William K. Reisen
Table 1
First dates for risk assessment thresholds and onset of human West Nile disease, Los Angeles, California, USA, 2004–2010*
| Model | Threshold | Year | Date |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Threshold met | First case | |||
| CMVRA | 2.6, emergency planning | 2004 | Apr 30 | Jun 21 |
| 2005 | Jun 30 | Jul 5 | ||
| 2006 | Jul 31 | Jul 10 | ||
| 2007 | Jul 15 | Jul 20 | ||
| 2008 | Jun 15 | Jun 24 | ||
| 2009 | Jul 15 | Aug 18 | ||
| 2010 | Jun 30 | Sep 14 | ||
| 4.1, epidemic | 2004 | Aug 15 | Jun 21 | |
| 2005 | Jul 31 | Jul 5 | ||
| 2006 | Aug 31 | Jul 10 | ||
| 2007 | Sep 15 | Jul 20 | ||
| 2008 | Jul 31 | Jun 24 | ||
| 2009 | Not observed | Aug 18 | ||
| 2010 | Not observed | Sep 14 | ||
| Vector index | >0.018, 65th percentile | 2004 | Apr 15 | Jun 21 |
| 2005 | Jun 15 | Jul 5 | ||
| 2006 | May 15 | Jul 10 | ||
| 2007 | May 15 | Jul 20 | ||
| 2008 | May 30 | Jun 24 | ||
| 2009 | Jul 15 | Aug 18 | ||
| 2010 | Jul 15 | Sep 14 | ||
| >0.069, 80th percentile | 2004 | Apr 15 | Jun 21 | |
| 2005 | Jun 30 | Jul 5 | ||
| 2006 | Aug 15 | Jul 10 | ||
| 2007 | Jul 31 | Jul 20 | ||
| 2008 | Jul 15 | Jun 24 | ||
| 2009 | Aug 15 | Aug 18 | ||
| 2010 | Jul 31 | Sep 14 | ||
| DYCAST | Daily | 2004 | May 4 | Jun 21 |
| 2005 | Jun 12 | Jul 5 | ||
| 2006 | Oct 4 | Jul 10 | ||
| 2007 | Aug 13 | Jul 20 | ||
| 2008 | Jun 4 | Jun 24 | ||
| 2009 | Jun 20 | Aug 18 | ||
| 2010 | Apr 5 | Sep 14 | ||
| Weekly, wk. no. | 2004 | 18 | 26 | |
| 2005 | 24 | 28 | ||
| 2006 | 40 | 28 | ||
| 2007 | 33 | 29 | ||
| 2008 | 23 | 26 | ||
| 2009 | 24 | 34 | ||
| 2010 | 19 | 37 | ||
*CMVRA, California Mosquito-Borne Risk Assessment; DYCAST, Dynamic Continuous-Area Space-Time system.
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