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Volume 19, Number 11—November 2013
Research

Capture–Recapture Method for Estimating Annual Incidence of Imported Dengue, France, 2007–2010

Guy La RucheComments to Author , Dominique Dejour-Salamanca, Pascale Bernillon, Isabelle Leparc-Goffart, Martine Ledrans, Alexis Armengaud, Monique Debruyne, Gérard-Antoine Denoyel, Ségolène Brichler, Laetitia Ninove, Philippe Desprès, and Marc Gastellu-Etchegorry
Author affiliations: Institut de Veille Sanitaire, Saint-Maurice, France (G. La Ruche, D. Dejour-Salamanca, P. Bernillon, M. Gastellu-Etchegorry); Institut de Recherche Biomédicale des Armées, Marseille, France (I. Leparc-Goffart); Cellule de l'Institut de Veille Sanitaire aux Antilles-Guyane, Fort-de-France, Martinique, France (M. Ledrans); Cellule de l'Institut de Veille Sanitaire Sud, Marseille (A. Armengaud); Cerba Laboratory, Saint-Ouen l’Aumone, France (M. Debruyne); Biomnis Laboratory, Lyon, France (G.-A. Denoyel); Avicenne University Hospital, Bobigny, France (S. Brichler); Institut Hospitalo-Universitaire Méditerranée-Infection, Marseille (L. Ninove); Institut Pasteur National Reference Laboratory for Arboviruses, Paris, France (P. Desprès)

Main Article

Table 3

Annual number of dengue cases estimated from MN and LN surveillance systems by using Chapman-Seber estimator, stratified according to geographic area and period of the year, metropolitan France, 2007–2010*

No. observed cases
Chapman-Seber estimator
Year, region, period System
 Common cases Estimated no. cases (95% CI) Completeness of MN, % (95% CI) Completeness of LN, % (95% CI)
MN LN
2007
Southeast, May–Nov 4 21 4 21† 19.0† 100†
Other areas, remainder of year 52 365 21 881 (678–1,228) 5.9 (4.2–7.7) 41.4 (29.7–53.8)
Total
 56
 386
 25
902 (699–1,249)
 6.2 (4.5–8.0)
 42.8 (30.9.7–55.2)
2008
Southeast, May–Nov 6 11 4 16 (14–27) 38.0 (22.0–44.4) 69.6 (40.3–81.2)
Other areas, remainder of year 58 293 42 402 (360–479) 14.4 (12.1–16.1) 72.8 (61.2–81.3)
Total
 64
 304
 46
418 (376–495)
 15.3 (12.9–17.0)
 72.7 (61.2–80.7)
2009
Southeast, May–Nov 5 19 4 23 (20–38) 21.7 (13.1–24.4) 82.6 (52.3–97.6)
Other areas, remainder of year 63 331 38 544 (468–671) 11.6 (9.4–13.5) 60.9 (49.3–70.1)
Total
 68
 350
 42
567 (490–694)
 12.0 (9.8–13.8)
 61.7 (50.3–71.2)
2010
Southeast, May–Nov 91 174 75 211 (200–232) 43.2 (39.3–45.4) 82.5 (75.2–86.8)
Other areas, remainder of year 494 1,951 354 2,721 (2,599–2,872) 18.2 (17.2–19.0) 71.7 (67.9–75.1)
Total
 585
 2,125
 429
2,932 (2,809–3,083)
 20.0 (19.0–20.8)
 72.5 (68.9–75.6)
2007–2010
Southeast, May–Nov 106 225 87 271 (258–294) 39.2 (35.4–40.8) 83.1 (75.1–86.7)
Other areas, remainder of year 667 2,940 455 4,548 (4,262–4,907) 14.7 (13.5–15.5) 64.6 (59.3–68.5)
Total
 773
 3,165
 542
4,818 (4,532–5,178)
 16.0 (14.8–16.9)
 65.7 (60.5–69.3)
*Information on geographic area or period of the year was not available for 27 cases; MN, mandatory notification; LN, laboratory network. 
†95% CI not presented because of null variances.
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Main Article

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Page updated: December 09, 2013
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