Volume 21, Number 4—April 2015
CME ACTIVITY - Research
Deaths Associated with Respiratory Syncytial and Influenza Viruses among Persons ≥5 Years of Age in HIV-Prevalent Area, South Africa, 1998–20091
Cheryl Cohen
, Sibongile Walaza, Cecile Viboud, Adam L. Cohen, Shabir A. Madhi, Marietjie Venter, Claire von Mollendorf, Jocelyn Moyes, Johanna M. McAnerney, and Stefano Tempia
, Sibongile Walaza, Cecile Viboud, Adam L. Cohen, Shabir A. Madhi, Marietjie Venter, Claire von Mollendorf, Jocelyn Moyes, Johanna M. McAnerney, and Stefano Tempia
Table 2
Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 excess deaths among persons ≥5 y of age, South Africa, July–September 2009*
| Cause of death by age, y | Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 excess deaths in 2009 (95% CI) |
Mortality rate ratio† (95% CI) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. | Rate† | % Death over model baseline (95% CI) | ||
| All causes | ||||
| 5–19 | 682 (455–910) | 4.4 (2.9–5.9) | 12.7 (8.5–17.0) | 5.4 (4.5–6.6) |
| 20–44 | 1820 (1201–2403) | 9.3 (6.2–12.4) | 2.6 (1.7–3.5) | 0.9 (0.6–1.2) |
| 45–64 | 1301 (867–1735) | 17.2 (11.5–23.0) | 2.5 (1.7–3.4) | 0.5 (0.3–0.7) |
| 65–74 | 279 (186–373) | 17.6 (11.8–23.5) | 1.2 (0.8–1.6) | 0.2 (0.1–0.3) |
| ≥75 | 31 (20–42) | 3.6 (2.4–4.8) | 0.1 (0.06–1.3) | 0.01 (0.006–0.013) |
| ≥5 |
4113 (2729–5463) |
9.2 (6.1–12.2) |
2.6 (1.9–3.3) |
0.4 (0.3–0.5)§ |
| All respiratory | ||||
| 5–19 | 626 (417–835) | 4.1 (2.7–5.4) | 61.6 (41.1–82.2) | 6.9 (5.5–8.6) |
| 20–44 | 936 (624–1248) | 4.8 (3.2–6.4) | 6.0 (4.0–8.0) | 1.2 (1.1–1.3) |
| 45–64 | 729 (486–972) | 9.6 (6.4–12.8) | 6.3 (4.2–8.4) | 0.6 (0.5–0.7) |
| 65–74 | 159 (106–212) | 10.1 (6.7–13.4) | 3.3 (2.2–4.4) | 0.2 (0.1–0.3) |
| ≥75 | 16 (10–21) | 1.8 (1.2–2.5) | 0.2 (0.1–0.3) | 0.01 (0.008–0.022) |
| ≥5 |
2466 (1,643–3,288) |
5.5 (3.6–7.3) |
7.1 (5.5–8.7) |
0.7 (0.6–0.8)§ |
| All circulatory | ||||
| 5–19 | 7 (0–13) | 0.05 (0.00–0.1) | 1.7 (0.0–3.3) | 0.2 (0.1–0.6) |
| 20–44 | 252 (168–336) | 1.3 (0.8–1.7) | 4.1 (2.7–5.5) | 1.0 (0.8–1.2) |
| 45–64 | 404 (269–539) | 5.3 (3.5–7.1) | 3.0 (2.0–4.0) | 0.4 (0.3–0.5) |
| 65–74 | 75 (51–103) | 4.7 (3.2–6.3) | 0.8 (0.5–1.1) | 0.1 (0.07–0.12) |
| ≥75 | 13 (8–17) | 1.5 (1.0–2.0) | 0.09 (0.06–0.12) | 0.01 (0.004–0.014) |
| ≥5 |
751 (496–1008) |
1.7 (1.1–2.2) |
1.7 (1.3–2.0) |
0.2 (0.1–0.3)§ |
| Pneumonia and influenza | ||||
| 5–19 | 449 (297–586) | 2.9 (1.9–3.9) | 73.1 (48.7–97.4) | 5.5 (4.3–6.9) |
| 20–44 | 548 (365–731) | 2.8 (1.8–3.7) | 5.7 (3.8–7.6) | 0.9 (0.7–1.1) |
| 45–64 | 421 (281–562) | 5.6 (3.7–7.4) | 7.3 (4.8–9.7) | 0.6 (0.5–0.7) |
| 65–74 | 90 (54–126) | 5.7 (2.8–5.9) | 4.3 (2.9–5.8) | 0.3 (0.2–0.4) |
| ≥75 | 3 (0–12) | 0.4 (0.0–1.9) | 0.08 (0.0–0.2) | 0.005 (0.001–0.009) |
| ≥5 | 1511 (997–2017) | 3.4 (2.2–4.5) | 3.7 (2.9–4.5) | 0.7 (0.6–0.8)§ |
*Estimated from model 1 (excess deaths irrespective of HIV status).
†Mortality rates per 100,000 person-years
‡Mortality rate ratio: 2009 influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 vs. 1998–2009 mean annual seasonal influenza.
§Age-adjusted rate ratio.
1Data from this study were presented in part at the Options for the Control of Influenza Conference VIII; 2013 Sep 5–10; Cape Town, South Africa.
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