Volume 21, Number 4—April 2015
CME ACTIVITY - Research
Deaths Associated with Respiratory Syncytial and Influenza Viruses among Persons ≥5 Years of Age in HIV-Prevalent Area, South Africa, 1998–20091
Table 3
Respiratory syncytial virus mean annual excess deaths and relative risk for death related to HIV infection among persons ≥5 y of age, South Africa, 1998–2009*
Cause of death by age, y | Mean annual excess deaths (95%CI) |
Relative risk, HIV+ vs. HIV– (95% CI) | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Total |
HIV+ |
HIV– |
||||||||
No., mean | Rate,† mean | % Death over model baseline | No., mean | Rate,† mean | No., mean | Rate,† mean | ||||
All causes | ||||||||||
5–19 | 61 (29–87) | 0.4 (0.2–0.6) | 0.9 (0.8–1.1) | 25 (12–36) | 11.6 (5.6–16.5) | 36 (17–51) | 0.2 (0.1–0.3) | 58.4 (15.1–154.9) | ||
20–44 | 449 (66–863) | 2.4 (0.4–4.7) | 0.6 (0.5–0.7) | 430 (62–818) | 13.1 (2.1–24.9) | 19 (4–45) | 0.1 (0.02–0.30) | 98.3 (20.6–163.2) | ||
45–64 | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NA | ||
65–74 | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NA | ||
≥75 | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NA | ||
≥5 | 511 (95–950) | 1.2 (0.4–1.5) | 0.7 (0.6–0.8) | 455 (74–854) | 12.1 (5.3–19.4) | 55 (21–96) | 0.1 (0.04–0.25) | 66.1 (26.0–167.8)‡ | ||
All respiratory | ||||||||||
5–19 | 39 (13–61) | 0.3 (0.1–0.4) | 3.6 (3.3–3.8) | 22 (9–33) | 10.1 (4.2–14.2) | 16 (7–24) | 0.1 (0.03–0.18) | 90.2 (16.5–193.2) | ||
20–44 | 389 (269–516) | 2.1 (1.7–2.5) | 2.3 (2.1–2.4) | 369 (255–489) | 11.1 (8.3–14.8) | 20 (13–26) | 0.1 (0.07–0.14) | 81.7 (17.3–182.5) | ||
45–64 | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NA | ||
65–74 | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NA | ||
≥75 | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NA | ||
≥5 | 429 (186–573) | 1.0 (0.04–1.2) | 1.1 (0.8–1.3) | 392 (264–522) | 9.8 (6.3–13.1) | 37 (20–50) | 0.1 (0.04–0.12) | 85.4 (27.2–167.8)‡ | ||
All circulatory | ||||||||||
5–19 | 8 (0–30) | 0.05 (0–0.2) | 1.4 (0.8–1.7) | NED | NED | 8 (0–30) | 0.05 (0–0.2) | NA | ||
20–44 | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NA | ||
45–64 | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NA | ||
65–74 | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NA | ||
≥75 | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NA | ||
≥5 | 8 (0–30) | 0.05 (0–0.2) | 1.4 (0.8–1.7) | NED | NED | 8 (0–30) | 0.05 (0–0.2) | NA | ||
Pneumonia and influenza | ||||||||||
5–19 | 35 (16–52) | 0.2 (0.1–0.3) | 5.2 (4.5–6.2) | 20 (9–30) | 9.2 (4.2–13.5) | 15 (6–21) | 0.1 (0.05–0.14) | 92.2 (15.3–159.7) | ||
20–44 | 257 (178–340) | 1.4 (0.7–2.2) | 2.3 (1.5–2.8) | 243 (168–321) | 7.2 (4.7–11.1) | 14 (10–19) | 0.1 (0.6–1.3) | 73.4 (11.9–145.9) | ||
45–64 | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NA | ||
65–74 | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NA | ||
≥75 | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NED | NA | ||
≥5 | 292 (194–392) | 0.7 (0.4–1.0) | 1.3 (0.9–1.5) | 263 (177–351) | 6.6 (5.1–7.2) | 29 (16–40) | 0.1 (0.6–1.4) | 82.7 (23.1–196.6)‡ |
*Estimated from model 1 (excess deaths irrespective of HIV status) and model 2 (excess deaths by HIV status). HIV, human immunodeficiency virus; NED, no estimated deaths; NA, not applicable.
†Mortality rates per 100,000 person-years.
‡Age-adjusted relative risk.
1Data from this study were presented in part at the Options for the Control of Influenza Conference VIII; 2013 Sep 5–10; Cape Town, South Africa.