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Volume 21, Number 8—August 2015
Research

Estimates of Outbreak Risk from New Introductions of Ebola with Immediate and Delayed Transmission Control

Damon J.A. TothComments to Author , Adi V. Gundlapalli, Karim Khader, Warren B.P. Pettey, Michael Rubin, Frederick R. Adler, and Matthew H. Samore
Author affiliations: University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA (D.J.A. Toth, A.V. Gundlapalli, K. Khader, W.B.P. Pettey, M.A. Rubin, F.R. Adler, M.H. Samore); US Department of Veterans Affairs Salt Lake City Health Care System, Salt Lake City (D.J.A. Toth, A.V. Gundlapalli, K. Khader, W.B.P. Pettey, M.A. Rubin, M.H. Samore).

Main Article

Figure 2

Comparison of worst-case Ebola outbreak sizes after a single-case introduction under different scenarios. Comparisons of the outbreak size expected to be exceeded after A) 1% of introductions and B) 0.01% of introduction of a single initial case, under different assumptions for the reproductive number R and dispersion parameter k. In all cases, higher transmission variability (lower k) leads to higher worst-case estimates. From the R0 = 3, Rc = 0.3 case, reducing Rc to 0.1 for cases after the in

Figure 2. Comparison of worst-case Ebola outbreak sizes after a single-case introduction under different scenarios. Comparisons of the outbreak size expected to be exceeded after A) 1% of introductions and B) 0.01% of introduction of a single initial case, under different assumptions for the reproductive number R and dispersion parameter k. In all cases, higher transmission variability (lower k) leads to higher worst-case estimates. From the R0 = 3, Rc = 0.3 case, reducing Rc to 0.1 for cases after the initial case has less effect than reducing the initial case R0 to 0.3. Reducing both the initial and subsequent cases’ R to 0.1 has a synergistic effect.

Main Article

Page created: July 14, 2015
Page updated: July 14, 2015
Page reviewed: July 14, 2015
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