Volume 21, Number 8—August 2015
Research
Estimates of Outbreak Risk from New Introductions of Ebola with Immediate and Delayed Transmission Control
Damon J.A. Toth
, Adi V. Gundlapalli, Karim Khader, Warren B.P. Pettey, Michael Rubin, Frederick R. Adler, and Matthew H. Samore
, Adi V. Gundlapalli, Karim Khader, Warren B.P. Pettey, Michael Rubin, Frederick R. Adler, and Matthew H. Samore
Table 2
Summary of Ebola data and parameter estimates*
| Patient group | No. | Transmissions | R estimate (90% CI) | k estimate (90% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All | 56 | 29 | 0.5 (0.2–1.0) | 0.09 (0.03–0.2) |
| Traveler | 7 | 19 | 2.9 (0.6–6.1) | 0.4 (0.2–1.3) |
| Evacuated patient | 20 | 1 | 0.05 (0–0.1) | ∞ |
| Patient with locally acquired Ebola | 29 | 9 | 0.3 (0.1–0.5) | 0.5 (0.2–∞) |
*Cases were included if the patient spent any of the infectious period in a country other than Guinea, Liberia, or Sierra Leone. The 56 patients are split into 3 mutually exclusive subgroups, depending on the patients’ circumstances. Parameters R and k of the negative binomial distribution are the reproductive number and dispersion parameter, respectively. Goodness of fit was not rejected by a Kolmogorov–Smirnov test (p>0.6 in all cases).
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