Volume 22, Number 2—February 2016
Research
Epidemiology of Serotype 1 Invasive Pneumococcal Disease, South Africa, 2003–2013
Table 1
Variable | No. cases/no. total (%) |
Univariate analysis† |
Multivariable analysis† |
|||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Serotype 1 | Non–serotype 1 | OR (95% CI) | p value | aOR (95% CI) | p value | |||
Age, y | ||||||||
<1 | 63/211 (30) | 2,754/5,061 (54) | Reference | <0.001 | Reference | <0.001 | ||
1 | 35/211 (17) | 1,155/5,061 (23) | 1.32 (0.87–2.01) | 2.36 (1.31–4.26) | ||||
2 | 43/211 (20) | 519/5,061 (10) | 3.62 (2.43–5.40) | 6.91 (3.78–12.64) | ||||
3 | 37/211 (18) | 355/5,061 (7) | 4.56 (2.99–6.94) | 12.03 (6.12–23.64) | ||||
4 |
33/211 (16) |
278/5,061 (5) |
5.19 (3.35–8.05) |
7.13 (3.60–14.13) |
||||
Province | ||||||||
Gauteng | 95/211 (45) | 2,067/5,061 (41) | Reference | <0.001 | Reference | <0.001 | ||
Western Cape | 11/211 (5) | 1,158/5,061 (23) | 0.21 (0.11–0.39) | 0.11 (0.04–0.26) | ||||
KwaZulu-Natal | 46/211 (22) | 957/5,061 (19) | 1.05 (0.73–1.50) | 1.04 (0.59–1.84) | ||||
Eastern Cape | 15/211 (7) | 152/5,061 (3) | 2.15 (1.22–3.79) | 1.98 (0.74–5.28) | ||||
Free State | 25/211 (12) | 383/5,061 (8) | 1.42 (0.90–2.24) | 1.06 (0.56–2.00) | ||||
Mpumalanga | 4/211 (2) | 104/5,061 (2) | 0.84 (0.30–2.32) | 0.58 (0.07–4.86) | ||||
North-West | 5/211 (2) | 46/5,061 (1) | 2.36 (0.92–6.09) | 5.65 (1.33–24.05) | ||||
Limpopo | 4/211 (2) | 48/5,061 (1) | 1.81 (0.64–5.13) | 1.79 (0.41–7.90) | ||||
Northern Cape |
6/211 (3) |
146/5,061 (3) |
0.89 (0.39–2.08) |
0.50 (0.15–1.64) |
||||
Year of specimen collection | ||||||||
2003 | 31/211 (15) | 544/5,061 (11) | 1.20 (0.72–1.99) | 0.004 | 1.10 (0.49–2.49) | 0.05 | ||
2004 | 26/211 (12) | 699/5,061 (14) | 0.78 (0.46–1.32) | 0.58 (0.25–1.34) | ||||
2005 | 32/211 (15) | 672/5,061 (13) | Reference | Reference | ||||
2006 | 21/211 (10) | 551/5,061 (11) | 0.80 (0.46–1.40) | 0.77 (0.34–1.72) | ||||
2007 | 15/211 (7) | 547/5,061 (11) | 0.58 (0.31–1.07) | 0.67 (0.26–1.75) | ||||
2008 | 10/211 (5) | 542/5,061 (11) | 0.39 (0.19–0.80) | 0.40 (0.15–1.03) | ||||
2009 | 23/211 (11) | 494/5,061 (10) | 0.98 (0.57–1.69) | 1.43 (0.63–3.24) | ||||
2010 | 19/211 (9) | 361/5,061 (7) | 1.11 (0.62–1.98) | 0.82 (0.33–2.08) | ||||
2011 | 19/211 (9) | 240/5,061 (5) | 1.66 (0.92–2.99) | 1.04 (0.44–2.44) | ||||
2012 | 12/211 (6) | 190/5,061 (4) | 1.33 (0.67–2.63) | 0.49 (0.18–1.33) | ||||
2013 |
3/211 (1) |
221/5,061 (4) |
0.29 (0.09–0.94) |
0.12 (0.02–0.59) |
||||
Medical conditions/treatment | ||||||||
Length of hospital stay, d | ||||||||
<3 | 57/186 (31) | 1,238/4,489 (28) | Reference | 0.09 | Reference | 0.04 | ||
4–14 | 96/186 (52) | 2,138/4,489 (48) | 0.98 (0.70–1.36) | 0.58 (0.33–1.02) | ||||
>15 | 33/186 (18) | 1,113/4,489 (25) | 0.64 (0.42–1.00) | 0.44 (0.23–0.85) | ||||
Previously hospitalized | 39/164 (24) | 1,676/4,110 (41) | 0.45 (0.31–0.65) | <0.001 | ||||
Underlying medical condition‡ | 27/114 (24) | 1,321/3,371 (39) | 0.48 (0.31–0.75) | 0.001 | ||||
Antimicrobial drug use in previous 2 mo§ | 10/147 (7) | 742/3,549 (21) | 0.28 (0.14–0.53) | <0.001 | ||||
HIV infected | 43/132 (33) | 2,125/3,539 (60) | 0.32 (0.22–0.47) | <0.001 | 0.19 (0.12–0.31) | <0.001 | ||
TB treatment in previous 3 mo | 11/161 (7) | 570/3,928 (15) | 0.43 (0.23–0.80) | 0.008 | ||||
Malnourished¶ | 24/95 (25) | 1,109/2,619 (42) | 0.46 (0.29–0.74) | 0.001 | ||||
Died during hospitalization |
24/191 (13) |
1,105/4,513 (24) |
0.44 (0.29–0.68) |
<0.001 |
0.38 (0.19–0.76) |
0.006 |
||
Pneumococcal isolate characteristics | ||||||||
Penicillin nonsusceptible# | 4/203 (2) | 2,580/4,950 (52) | 0.02 (0.01–0.05) | <0.001 | 0.02 (0.01–0.05) | <0.001 | ||
Previous invasive pneumococcal disease** |
2/211 (1) |
356/5,061 (7) |
0.13 (0.03–0.51) |
0.004 |
||||
Clinical syndrome†† | ||||||||
Meningitis | 59/198 (30) | 1,668/4,736 (35) | Reference | 0.001 | ||||
Pneumonia | 124/198 (63) | 2,358/4,736 (50) | 1.49 (1.08–2.04) | |||||
Bacteremia | 15/198 (8) | 710/4,736 (15) | 0.60 (0.34–1.06) |
*All patients were reported from the enhanced Group for Enteric, Respiratory, and Meningeal Disease Surveillance in South Africa (GERMS-SA) surveillance sites. aOR, adjusted odds ratio; OR, odds ratio; TB, tuberculosis.
†Only variables significant on univariate and multivariable analysis are shown. Variables not included are sex, race, Pitt bacteremia score, prematurity, antimicrobial drug use in previous 24 h, viable culture, and specimen type.
‡Includes asplenia or sickle cell anemia; chronic illness (i.e., chronic lung, renal, liver, cardiac disease, and diabetes); other immunocompromising conditions (i.e. including organ transplant, primary immunodeficiency, immunotherapy, and malignancy, but excluding HIV); and other risk factors (i.e., head injury with possible cerebral spinal fluid leak, neurologic disorders, burns, and chromosomal abnormalities). Excludes malnutrition.
§Use of any antimicrobial drug in 2 mo prior to admission.
¶Malnutrition was classified as a weight-for-age z-score of less than −2 (World Health Organization child growth standards 2009) (18), nutritional edema, or both.
#Considered penicillin nonsusceptible at MIC >0.12 μg/mL; intermediately resistant and resistant groups were combined into a nonsusceptible group.
**Invasive pneumococcal disease diagnosis >21 d before this episode.
††Clinical diagnoses were made on the basis of documented discharge diagnoses in patient medical records; clinical syndrome were separated into 3 groups: meningitis, bacteremic pneumonia, and bacteremia without focus or other diagnosis (e.g., septic arthritis, endopthalmitis, peritonitis, pericarditis).
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