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Volume 24, Number 2—February 2018
Research

Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone1

Felicity Fitzgerald2Comments to Author , Kevin Wing2, Asad Naveed, Musa Gbessay, J.C.G. Ross, Francesco Checchi, Daniel Youkee, Mohamed Boie Jalloh, David E. Baion, Ayeshatu Mustapha, Hawanatu Jah, Sandra Lako, Shefali Oza, Sabah Boufkhed, Reynold Feury, Julia Bielicki, Elizabeth Williamson, Diana M. Gibb, Nigel Klein, Foday Sahr, and Shunmay Yeung
Author affiliations: University College London Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, London, UK (F. Fitzgerald, N. Klein); Save the Children, Freetown, Sierra Leone, and London (F. Fitzgerald, K. Wing, A. Naveed, M. Gbessay, J.C.G. Ross, F. Checchi); London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London (K. Wing, F. Checchi, S. Oza, S. Boufkhed, E. Williamson, S. Yeung); Kings Sierra Leone Partnership, Kings Centre for Global Health, Kings College London, London (D. Youkee); 34 Military Hospital, Republic of Sierra Leone Armed Forces, Freetown (M.B. Jalloh, F. Sahr); Ola During Children’s Hospital, Sierra Leone Ministry of Health, Freetown (D.E. Baion, A. Mustapha); Cap Anamur (German Emergency Doctors), Ola During Children’s Hospital, Freetown (H. Jah); Welbodi Partnership, Ola During Children’s Hospital, Freetown (S. Lako); Western Area Emergency Response Centre, Freetown (R. Feury); MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL, London (J. Bielicki, D.M. Gibb); Farr Institute of Health Informatics, London (E. Williamson)

Main Article

Table 3

Validation of PEP score against a standard of laboratory-confirmed Ebola virus disease status, compared with WHO case definition, based on a cohort of children who attended an Ebola holding unit and had EVD test results recorded, Sierra Leone, August 14, 2014–March 31, 2015*

Score Sensitivity (95% CI) Specificity (95% CI) PPV (95% CI) NPV (95% CI) % Correctly classified (95% CI)
0 100 1 (0–4) 31 (25–38) 100 31 (25–38)
1 97 (89–100) 4 (1–8) 31 (25–38) 71 (29–96) 32 (26–39)
2 97 (89–100) 13 (8–20) 33 (27–40) 91 (70–99) 39 (32–46)
3 94 (85–98) 30 (22–37) 37 (30–45) 91 (79–98) 49 (42–56)
4 86 (75–93) 49 (40–57) 43 (34–52) 89 (80–95) 60 (53–67)
5 77 (64–86) 67 (58–74) 51 (40–61) 87 (79–92) 70 (63–76)
6 58 (45–70) 82 (75–88) 59 (46–71) 81 (74–87) 75 (68–80)
7 44 (31–57) 92 (86–96) 70 (54–83) 79 (72–85) 77 (71–82)
8 23 (14–35) 95 (90–98) 68 (45–86) 74 (67–80) 73 (67–79)
9 11 (5–21) 98 (94–100) 70 (35–93) 71 (64–77) 71 (64–77)
10
 5 (1–13)
 99 (96–100)
 75 (19–99)
 70 (63–76)
 70 (63–76)
WHO case definition† 98 (95–99) 5 (3–7) 30 (27–34) 84 (66–95) 33 (29–36)

*EVD, Ebola virus disease; NPV, negative predictive value; PEP, pediatric Ebola predictor; PPV, positive predictive value; WHO, World Health Organization.
†Late-2014 WHO case definition with pediatric differentiations.

Main Article

1Preliminary results from this study were presented at the 26th European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Amsterdam, Netherlands, April 9–12, 2016; and the 34th Annual Meeting of the European Society for Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Brighton, UK, May 10–14, 2016.

2These authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: January 17, 2018
Page updated: January 17, 2018
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