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Volume 24, Number 2—February 2018
Research

Development of a Pediatric Ebola Predictive Score, Sierra Leone1

Felicity Fitzgerald2Comments to Author , Kevin Wing2, Asad Naveed, Musa Gbessay, J.C.G. Ross, Francesco Checchi, Daniel Youkee, Mohamed Boie Jalloh, David E. Baion, Ayeshatu Mustapha, Hawanatu Jah, Sandra Lako, Shefali Oza, Sabah Boufkhed, Reynold Feury, Julia Bielicki, Elizabeth Williamson, Diana M. Gibb, Nigel Klein, Foday Sahr, and Shunmay Yeung
Author affiliations: University College London Great Ormond Street Institute of Child Health, London, UK (F. Fitzgerald, N. Klein); Save the Children, Freetown, Sierra Leone, and London (F. Fitzgerald, K. Wing, A. Naveed, M. Gbessay, J.C.G. Ross, F. Checchi); London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London (K. Wing, F. Checchi, S. Oza, S. Boufkhed, E. Williamson, S. Yeung); Kings Sierra Leone Partnership, Kings Centre for Global Health, Kings College London, London (D. Youkee); 34 Military Hospital, Republic of Sierra Leone Armed Forces, Freetown (M.B. Jalloh, F. Sahr); Ola During Children’s Hospital, Sierra Leone Ministry of Health, Freetown (D.E. Baion, A. Mustapha); Cap Anamur (German Emergency Doctors), Ola During Children’s Hospital, Freetown (H. Jah); Welbodi Partnership, Ola During Children’s Hospital, Freetown (S. Lako); Western Area Emergency Response Centre, Freetown (R. Feury); MRC Clinical Trials Unit at UCL, London (J. Bielicki, D.M. Gibb); Farr Institute of Health Informatics, London (E. Williamson)

Main Article

Table 4

Comparison of 2 different PEP scores on a hypothetical population of 100 suspected EVD patients at different points in EVD outbreak with differing prevalence of EVD*

PEP score
 October 2014, 77% of suspected EVD+ cases†
March 2015, 4% of suspected EVD+ cases†
True EVD+, 
correctly admitted
 True EVD–, correctly
not admitted
 False 
EVD+, unnecessarily
admitted
 False 
EVD–, incorrectly not admitted
 True EVD+, correctly admitted
 True EVD–, correctly
not admitted
 False 
EVD+, unnecessarily
admitted
 False EVD–, incorrectly not admitted
3: 94% sensitivity, 30% specificity 72 7 16 5 4 28 68 0
7: 44% sensitivity, 92% specificity 34 21 2 43 2 88 8 2

*Laboratory-confirmed EVD status figures from Connaught Hospital (Freetown, Sierra Leone) during the 2014–2015 outbreak. EVD, Ebola virus disease; PEP, pediatric Ebola predictive; +, positive; –, negative.
†True or false EVD+ or EVD– determined by case ascertainment by PEP score. Admission result represents modeled outcome for patients in terms of Ebola holding unit.

Main Article

1Preliminary results from this study were presented at the 26th European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Amsterdam, Netherlands, April 9–12, 2016; and the 34th Annual Meeting of the European Society for Pediatric Infectious Diseases, Brighton, UK, May 10–14, 2016.

2These authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: January 17, 2018
Page updated: January 17, 2018
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