Volume 26, Number 10—October 2020
Research
Impact of Social Distancing Measures on Coronavirus Disease Healthcare Demand, Central Texas, USA
Table 2
Estimated peak COVID-19 cases and healthcare demands, Austin–Round Rock, metropolitan statistical area, Texas, USA, March 1–August 17, 2020*
Outcome | No measures | School closure | School closure and 50% social distancing | School closure and 75% social distancing | School closure and 90% social distancing |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cases | 272,978 (228,088–327,181) | 237,428 (176,910–281,441) | 64,779 (33,837–110,968) | 4,643 (267–35,148) | 163 (42–1,279) |
New cases daily | 54,106 (47,301–62,646) | 43,535 (33,691–50,105) | 10,573 (6,297–16,768) | 851 (57–5,436) | 32 (10–212) |
Hospitalizations | 23,073 (20,961–24,695) | 20,671 (17,193–22,473) | 6,804 (3,088–10,271) | 402 (31–2,963) | 18 (5–105) |
ICU | 2,831 (2,575–3,033) | 2,532 (2,107–2,759) | 833 (377–1,254) | 50 (4–362) | 2 (1–13) |
Ventilators | 835 (760–895) | 746 (621–814) | 245 (111–369) | 15 (1–107) | 1 (0–4) |
*Values are medians (95% prediction intervals) across 100 stochastic simulations based on parameters in Table 1. COVID-19, coronavirus disease; ICU, intensive care unit.
1These authors contributed equally to this article.
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