Estimating the Force of Infection for Dengue Virus Using Repeated Serosurveys, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso
Jacqueline K. Lim
, Mabel Carabali, Tansy Edwards, Ahmed Barro, Jung-Seok Lee, Desire Dahourou, Kang Sung Lee, Teguewende Nikiema, Mee Young Shin, Emmanuel Bonnet, Therese Kagone, Losseni Kaba, Suk Namkung, Paul-André Somé, Jae Seung Yang, Valéry Ridde, In-Kyu Yoon, Neal Alexander, and Yaro Seydou
Author affiliations: International Vaccine Institute, Seoul, South Korea (J.K. Lim, M. Carabali, J.-S. Lee, K.S. Lee, M.Y. Shin, S. Namkung, J.S. Yang); London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK (J.K. Lim, T. Edwards, N. Alexander); Centre MURAZ, Bobo-Dioulasso, Burkina Faso (D. Dahourou, T. Nikiema, T. Kagone, Y. Seydou); McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada (M. Carabali); Action, Gouvernance, Intégration, Renforcement Program Equité, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso (A. Barro, P.-A. Somé); Institut de Recherché en Sciences de la Santé, Ouagadougou (D. Dahourou); I; nstitute for Research on Sustainable Development, Université de Paris, Paris, France (E. Bonnet, V. Ridde); Centre National de Transfusion Sanguine, Ouagadougou (L. Kaba); Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, Washington, DC, USA (I.-K. Yoon)
Figure 2. Seroprevalence, measured by IgG ELISA, of dengue IgG by age at enrollment and fitted prevalence using the FOI per year in study of force of infection for dengue virus, Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, June–July 2015. Graph shows observed seroprevalence at enrollment among all 2,897 participants and fitted seroprevalence using FOI. In the FOI analysis part A, the FOI per year was 0.0595 (95% CI 0.0566–0.0624), estimated by binomial regression, with the assumption of constant risk across ages and calendar time prior to the enrollment serosurvey, and a complementary log-log link, with log(midpoint of age) as an offset. The intercept is interpreted as the logarithm of the FOI. FOI, force of infection.
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