Recency-Weighted Statistical Modeling Approach to Attribute Illnesses Caused by 4 Pathogens to Food Sources Using Outbreak Data, United States
Michael B. Batz
, LaTonia C. Richardson, Michael C. Bazaco, Cary Chen Parker, Stuart J. Chirtel, Dana Cole1
, Neal J. Golden, Patricia M. Griffin, Weidong Gu2
, Susan K. Schmitt3
, Beverly J. Wolpert, Joanna S. Zablotsky Kufel, and R. Michael Hoekstra4
Author affiliations: US Food and Drug Administration, College Park, Maryland, USA (M.B. Batz, M.C. Bazaco, C. Chen Parker, S.J. Chirtel, B.J. Wolpert); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (L.C. Richardson, D. Cole, P.M. Griffin, W. Gu, R.M. Hoekstra); US Department of Agriculture, Washington, DC, USA (N.J. Golden, S.K. Schmitt, J.S. Zablotsky Kufel)
Figure 2. Number of reported illnesses (log scale) for foodborne disease outbreaks caused by a single pathogen and attributable to a single food category, for 3 outbreak characteristics, for Salmonella (A), Escherichia coli O157 (B), Listeria monocytogenes (C), and Campylobacter (D), Foodborne Disease Outbreak Surveillance System, United States, 1998–2012. Each panel displays outbreak size for a given pathogen, grouped by 1 of 3 categorical variables. Each includes a scatterplot of individual outbreaks (indicated by solid circles), the mean (indicated by solid squares), and a boxplot showing median, interquartile range, and minimum and maximum values inside the inner and outer fences (1.5 interquartile range).
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