Figure 1. Monkeypox virus decay on cotton, polypropylene, and stainless steel under different environmental conditions. A) Regression lines showing predicted exponential decay of virus titers over time compared with measured (directly inferred) virus titers. Points show posterior median of measured titers; black lines show 95% credible intervals. Colored lines indicate random draws from the joint posterior distribution of exponential decay rate (negative of the slope) and intercept (initial virus titer), visualizing range of possible decay patterns for each experimental condition. Blue lines show virus titers during the inferred wet phase, when residual moisture remains visible on the surface; red lines show virus titers during the inferred dry phase, when evaporation has reached a state of quasi-equilibrium. The exact breakpoint was inferred from the data with a previous measurement from the last day of observable liquid. B) Inferred virus half-lives by surface and temperature condition. Dots show the posterior median half-life estimate and black lines show 68% (thick) and 95% (thin) credible intervals. Violin plots show the shape of posterior distribution. Blue show inferred virus half-lives on surfaces during wet phase and red on surfaces during dry phase.