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Volume 31, Number 5—May 2025
Dispatch

Recent and Forecasted Increases in Coccidioidomycosis Incidence Linked to Hydroclimatic Swings, California, USA

Simon K. Camponuri1, Alexandra K. Heaney1, Gail Sondermeyer Cooksey, Duc J. Vugia, Seema Jain, Daniel L. Swain, John Balmes, Justin V. Remais, and Jennifer R. HeadComments to Author 
Author affiliation: University of California, Berkeley, California, USA (S.K. Camponuri, J. Balmes, J.V. Remais); University of California, San Diego, California, USA (A. K. Heaney); California Department of Public Health, Richmond, California, USA (G.S. Cooksey, D.J. Vugia); San Francisco Department of Public Health, San Francisco, California, USA (S. Jain); University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, Davis, California, USA (D.L. Swain); University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA (D.L. Swain); NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA (D.L. Swain); University of California, San Francisco (J. Balmes); University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA (J.R. Head)

Main Article

Figure 1

Statewide monthly coccidioidomycosis cases, January 1, 2000–March 31, 2025, in study of recent and forecasted increases in coccidioidomycosis incidence linked to hydroclimatic swings, California, USA. Black dots indicate confirmed cases reported during 2000–2022, times symbols indicate the provisional cases reported during January 1, 2023–December 31, 2024, the green line represents the ensemble model fit to the observed case data (R2 = 0.87), and the purple line indicates the ensemble model predicted (April 1, 2023–March 31, 2024) and forecasted (April 1, 2024–March 31, 2025) cases. Shading represents 90% prediction intervals.

Figure 1. Statewide monthly coccidioidomycosis cases, January 1, 2000–March 31, 2025, in study of recent and forecasted increases in coccidioidomycosis incidence linked to hydroclimatic swings, California, USA. Black dots indicate confirmed cases reported during 2000–2022, times symbols indicate the provisional cases reported during January 1, 2023–December 31, 2024, the green line represents the ensemble model fit to the observed case data (R2 = 0.87), and the purple line indicates the ensemble model predicted (April 1, 2023–March 31, 2024) and forecasted (April 1, 2024–March 31, 2025) cases. Shading represents 90% prediction intervals.

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: March 04, 2025
Page updated: April 25, 2025
Page reviewed: April 25, 2025
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