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Volume 7, Number 7—June 2001
International Conference on Emerging Infectious Diseases 2000

Conference Presentations

Epidemiology, Evolution, and Future of the HIV/AIDS Pandemic

Bruce R. Levin*Comments to Author , J. J. Bull†, and Frank M. Stewart‡
Author affiliations: *Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia, USA; †University of Texas, Austin, Texas, USA; ‡Brown University, Providence, Rhode Island, USA

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Table 1

Stages in the age of infection (AoI) model used in this investigation

Duration New Death
Stage Characteristics (weeks) infectionsa rate
0 Establishment: virus enters and colonizes host L0 0 0
1 Primary infection: virus proliferates to high densities; the host seroconverts, which causes an abrupt decline in the titer of circulating virus L1 R1 0
2 Asymptomatic: circulating virus remains at low levels, and disease symptoms are absent L2 R2 0
3 AIDS L3 R3 100% at end

aTotal number of new infections produced by persons in this stage.

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