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Volume 20, Number 1—January 2014

Dynamic Modeling of Cost-effectiveness of Rotavirus Vaccination, Kazakhstan

Birgitte Freiesleben de BlasioComments to Author , Elmira Flem, Renat Latipov, Ajnagul Kuatbaeva, and Ivar Sønbø Kristiansen
Author affiliations: Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway (B. Freiesleben de Blasio, E. Flem); University of Oslo, Norway (B. Freiesleben de Blasio, I.S. Kristiansen); Research Institute of Virology, Tashkent, Republic of Uzbekistan (R. Latipov); Scientific-Practical Centre of Epidemiologic Surveillance, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan (A. Kuatbaeva)

Main Article

Table 1

Natural history and vaccine-related parameters used in dynamic modeling of cost-effectiveness of rotavirus vaccination, Kazakhstan

Parameter Base value [range] Reference/source
Population during 1980 15,926 million (16)
Birth cohort* [217,580–367,750] (16,17)
Mortality rate in <1 y* 20–54 per 1,000 births (16,17)
Mortality rate in 1–4 y* 3.9–6.3 per 1,000 births (16,17)
Net yearly migration rate* −18.6–0.1 per 1,000 (16,17)
Deaths per year*
Natural history
Duration of maternal protection 70 d (18)
Duration of latency period 0.5 d (19)
Infectious period (days) 8 (first); 6 (second); 4 (later) (2022)
Relative susceptibility 1 (first); 0.62 (second); 0.40 (later) (23)
Relative infectiousness 1 (first); 0.5 (second); [0.1–0.2] (later) Author assumption
Proportion of infections with RVGE 0.47(first); 0.25 (second); 0.24 (later) (23)
Severe RVGE 0.13 (first); 0.04 (second); 0 (later) (23)
Duration of complete immunity
[6–12 mo]
Sero-conversion rate 0.96 (25)
Relative infectiousness†
Relative susceptibility† 0.5
0.62 Assumption
Author assumption
Prop. of infections with RVGE 0.30 [0.25–0.35] (2527)
Severe RVGE 0.1175 [0.0885–0.139] (2527)
Coverage 0.9 [0.8–1.0] Author assumption
Duration of complete immunity
12–24 mo]
Author assumption
Infectivity parameter, β0 1.889–2.605 Author calculation
Seasonal forcing, β1 0.025–0.046 Author calculation
Phase angle, θ 0.011–0.251 Author calculation
Mixing (relative susceptibility)§
0–7m, 8–23 m, 24–35 m
Author calculation
*Demographic parameters vary over the time period 1980-2031; only minimum and maximum values are listed in the table. All simulations are performed using the same set of demographic parameters.
†Vaccine efficacy calculated for children with no previous natural infection. 
‡Details on the fitted parameters of the five candidate models; see corresponding model fits in Technical Appendix Table; seasonal forcing: β0(1 + β1)sin(2πt / 365 + 0). 
§Relative susceptibility in children <3 years (Technical Appendix, section 1).

Main Article

Page created: January 03, 2014
Page updated: January 03, 2014
Page reviewed: January 03, 2014
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