Volume 20, Number 1—January 2014
Research
Dynamic Modeling of Cost-effectiveness of Rotavirus Vaccination, Kazakhstan
Table 5
Estimated projected costs in US dollars and avoided health outcomes from rotavirus vaccination with 2-year protection, Kazakhstan, 2012–2031*
Outcome | No vaccination | Scenario C, 90% vaccine coverage, 2-y vaccination protection |
||
---|---|---|---|---|
Mean | Low | High | ||
Avoided outcomes, undiscounted |
||||
Deaths | 1,310 | 919 | 823 | 1,034 |
Hospital admissions | 77,205 | 54,163 | 48,823 | 59,701 |
Out-patient visits | 550,896 | 386,479 | 224,410 | 558,096 |
Home care episodes | 2,675,456 | 1,544,202 | 747,494 | 2,390,646 |
Life-years gained |
NA |
57,183 |
51,174 |
64,306 |
Avoided costs, undiscounted, US $43 per vaccine dose |
||||
Vaccination | NA | 530.7 | 530.7 | 530.7 |
Prevented in-hospital care | 25.7 | 19.7 | 17.8 | 21.8 |
Prevented outpatient care | 16.3 | 12.5 | 7.3 | 18.1 |
Prevented homecare | 8.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 8.4 |
Avoided indirect costs | 179.4 | 130.7 | 95.2 | 169.2 |
Total net costs in US$ |
229.9 |
362.4 |
407.8 |
313.4 |
Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, societal perspective |
||||
Discounted 3% |
NA |
16,775 |
21,031 |
12,952 |
Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, health care perspective |
||||
Discounted 3% |
NA |
22:759 |
25:898 |
19:841 |
Threshold prices, 3% discounting |
||||
Medical break-even price† | NA | $2.95 | $2.15 | $3.79 |
*NA, not applicable.
†The price per vaccine dose at which the vaccinations costs are offset by cost saving generated from lower morbidity and mortality rates.