Table 4

Dynamic Modeling of Cost-effectiveness of Rotavirus Vaccination, Kazakhstan

Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio

, Elmira Flem, Renat Latipov, Ajnagul Kuatbaeva, and Ivar Sønbø Kristiansen

Author affiliations: Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway (B. Freiesleben de Blasio, E. Flem); University of Oslo, Norway (B. Freiesleben de Blasio, I.S. Kristiansen); Research Institute of Virology, Tashkent, Republic of Uzbekistan (R. Latipov); Scientific-Practical Centre of Epidemiologic Surveillance, Almaty, Republic of Kazakhstan (A. Kuatbaeva)

Main Article

Estimated projected costs and avoided health outcomes of rotavirus vaccination program in Kazakhstan, 2012–2031

Outcome	No vaccination	Base case, 90% vaccine coverage, 1-y vaccination protection			Scenario A, 80% vaccine coverage, 1-y vaccination protection			Scenario B, 100% vaccine coverage, 1-y vaccination protection
Outcome	No vaccination	Mean	Low	High	Mean	Low	High	Mean		Low		High
		Avoided outcomes, undiscounted
Fatal cases	1,310	880	776	1,004	777	681	890	985	876		1 114
In-hospital care	77,205	51,891	46,094	57,971	45,802	40,436	51,447	58,086	52,038		64,396
Out-patient visits	550,896	370,268	211,825	541,919	326,820	185,825	480,935	414,473	239,145		601,983
Home care episodes	2,675,456	1,344,747	640,836	2,112,400	1,163,780	552,160	1,835,487	1,544,096	740,039		2,412,843
Life years gained		54,784	48,304	62,442	48,356	42,375	55,416	61,325	54,534		69,363
Vaccination		530.7	530.7	530.7	471.9	471.9	471.9	589.6	589.6		589.6
In-hospital care	−25.7	−18.9	−16.8	−21.2	−16.7	−14.7	−18.7	−21.2	−18.9		−23.5
Out-hospital care	−16.3	−12.0	−6.9	−17.6	−10.6	−6.0	−15.6	−13.4	−7.8		−19.5
Homecare	−8.5	−4.7	−2.2	−7.4	−4.1	−1.9	−6.4	−5.4	−2.6		−8.4
Indirect costs	−179.4	−122.3	−88.4	−159.7	−107.4	−77.4	−140.9	−137.7	−100.3		−178.9
Total net costs	229.9	372.8	416.4	325.0	333.1	371.8	290.2	411.9	460.1		359.3
	Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, societal perspective
Discounted 3%	NA	18,044	22,779	13,854	18,280	27,991	13,955	17,775	22,250		13,768
	Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, health care perspective
Discounted 3%	NA	23,892	27,573	20,557	24,102	23,210	20,620	23,658	27,061		20,526
	Threshold prices, 3% discounting
Medical break-even price†	NA	$2.78	$2.01	$3.62	$2.78	$1.96	$3.60	$2.83	$2.05		$3.65

*Negative values indicate prevented or avoided costs. NA, not applicable.
†The price per vaccine dose at which the vaccinations costs are offset by cost saving generated from lower morbidity and mortality rates.

Main Article

Page created: January 03, 2014

Page updated: January 03, 2014

Page reviewed: January 03, 2014

The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.