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Volume 21, Number 2—February 2015
Research

Quantifying Reporting Timeliness to Improve Outbreak Control

Axel Bonačić MarinovićComments to Author , Corien Swaan, Jim van Steenbergen, and Mirjam Kretzschmar
Author affiliations: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands (A. Bonačić Marinović, C. Swaan, J. van Steenbergen, M. Kretzschmar); University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands (A. Bonačić Marinović, M. Kretzschmar); Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands (J. van Steenbergen)

Main Article

Figure 3

Schematic modification of PIR2. A) Generation interval time distributions of index and secondary cases, from the moment of exposure of the notified index case. PIR2 is represented by the area under the second generation interval distribution, which is 1 in the absence of notification/intervention. B) PIR1 and PIR2 values when index cases are notified and stopped together with their secondary cases, according to a time distribution. C) How PIR values in panel B are modified by 40% underreporting.

Figure 3. Schematic modification of PIR2. A) Generation interval time distributions of index and secondary cases, from the moment of exposure of the notified index case. PIR2 is represented by the area under the second generation interval distribution, which is 1 in the absence of notification/intervention. B) PIR1 and PIR2 values when index cases are notified and stopped together with their secondary cases, according to a time distribution. C) How PIR values in panel B are modified by 40% underreporting. Dark gray shading indicates PIR1 and PRI2 values. The black line indicates the proportion of index cases not yet notified (right y-axis), equivalent to the probability of an index case not yet being notified in each situation. PIR1, expected proportion of cases caused by index case at notification; PIR2, expected proportion of new infections caused by secondary cases before index case is notified.

Main Article

Page created: January 20, 2015
Page updated: January 20, 2015
Page reviewed: January 20, 2015
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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