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Volume 21, Number 2—February 2015

Quantifying Reporting Timeliness to Improve Outbreak Control

Axel Bonačić MarinovićComments to Author , Corien Swaan, Jim van Steenbergen, and Mirjam Kretzschmar
Author affiliations: National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, the Netherlands (A. Bonačić Marinović, C. Swaan, J. van Steenbergen, M. Kretzschmar); University Medical Centre Utrecht, Utrecht, the Netherlands (A. Bonačić Marinović, M. Kretzschmar); Leiden University Medical Centre, Leiden, the Netherlands (J. van Steenbergen)

Main Article

Table 2

Effects of reducing reporting delays, by disease*

Effect Hepatitis A Hepatitis B Measles Mumps Pertussis Shigellosis
Current PIR1 (PIR1 at symptom onset) 0.818 (0.480) 0.907 (0.810) 0.947 (0.495) 0.901 (0.574) 0.948 (0.322) 0.960 (0.230)
Current PIR2 (PIR2 at symptom onset) 0.145 (0.019) 0.456 (0.320) 0.423 (0.006) 0.273 (0.005) 0.817 (0.067) 0.836 (0.056)
PIR2 reduction ratio by reducing delay in 1 d 9.7% 1.5% 12.6% 13.5% 0.7% 2.4%
Reporting delay median needed for PIR2 = 1/R 17 d 42 d 5 d 8 d 4.5 d 3 d
Reporting delay median needed for PIR2 = 1/R2 8 d 1 d 2 d 3 d Not possible 1 d
Underreporting beyond which outbreak control is not possible 29% 1.5% 12% 18% 12% 25%
Reduction of vaccination coverage for herd immunity 70% 64% 8% 20% 2% 4%

*PIR values at symptom onset show a theoretical minimum, achievable by stopping transmission instantly at symptom onset. PIR1, proportion of expected infections produced by an index case; PIR2, proportion of expected infections produced by each secondary case produced by a reported index case.

Main Article

Page created: January 20, 2015
Page updated: January 20, 2015
Page reviewed: January 20, 2015
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