Volume 25, Number 2—February 2019
Synopsis
Trends of Human Plague, Madagascar, 1998–2016
Voahangy Andrianaivoarimanana1, Patrice Piola12, David M. Wagner, Fanjasoa Rakotomanana, Viviane Maheriniaina, Samuel Andrianalimanana, Suzanne Chanteau3, Lila Rahalison4, Maherisoa Ratsitorahina, and Minoarisoa Rajerison
Table 3
Risk factors for death from plague, Madagascar, 1998–2016*
| Factor | No. patients | Univariate analysis |
Multivariate analysis |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OR (95% CI) | p value | OR (95% CI) | p value | |||
| Delay to seek healthcare, d | ||||||
| 0 (same day) | 1,142 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 2,426 | 0.91 (0.73–1.14) | 0.42 | |||
| 2 | 1,059 | 2.51 (2.00–3.16) | <0.0001 | 3.24 (2.46–4.28) | <0.0001 | |
| 3 | 504 | 3.94 (3.01–5.14) | <0.0001 | 4.93 (3.62–6.70) | <0.0001 | |
| 4 | 288 | 3.99 (2.92–5.44) | <0.0001 | 4.98 (3.48–7.11) | <0.0001 | |
| >5 |
385 |
2.20 (1.63–2.97) |
<0.0001 |
2.94 (2.08–4.14) |
<0.0001 |
|
| Clinical form of plague | ||||||
| Bubonic | 5,114 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Pneumonic |
401 |
2.00 (1.57–2.53) |
<0.0001 |
1.58 (1.21–2.06) |
<0.0001 |
|
| Time period | ||||||
| Until 2009 | 3,977 | 1 | 1 | |||
| After 2009 |
1,843 |
1.68 (1.46–1.93) |
<0.0001 |
1.58 (1.34–1.86) |
<0.0001 |
|
| Contact with a plague case | ||||||
| No | 5,275 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Yes |
486 |
1.92 (1.55–2.38) |
<0.0001 |
1.90 (1.47–2.41) |
<0.0001 |
|
| Reporting dead rats | ||||||
| No | 4,544 | 1 | 1 | |||
| Yes |
971 |
0.63 (0.50–0.77) |
<0.0001 |
0.66 (0.52–0.82) |
0.001 |
|
| Age, y | ||||||
| <5 | 589 | 1 | 1† | |||
| 5–18 | 2,964 | 0.88 (0.70–1.11) | 0.28 | |||
| 19–35 | 1,383 | 0.93 (0.73–1.20) | 0.58 | |||
| 36–54 | 614 | 1.42 (1.08–1.88) | 0.01 | 1.25 (1.01–1.56) 0.04† |
||
| >55 |
156 |
1.38 (0.91–2.11) |
0.12 |
|||
| Sex | ND | ND | ||||
| F | 2,438 | 1 | ND | ND | ||
| M |
3,319 |
0.86 (0.75–0.98) |
0.026 |
ND |
ND |
|
| Recent travel | ND | ND | ||||
| No | 5,214 | 1 | ND | ND | ||
| Yes | 422 | 1.37 (1.07–1.75) | 0.010 | ND | ND | |
*Model χ2 = 357, df = 10, p<0.0001. ND, not done.
†In multivariate analysis, age groups were merged into 2 groups: <36 y and >36 y.
1These authors contributed equally to this article.
2Current affiliation: Institut Pasteur, Phnom Penh, Cambodia.
3Retired.
4Current affiliation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
Page created: January 18, 2019
Page updated: January 18, 2019
Page reviewed: January 18, 2019
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