Volume 25, Number 2—February 2019
Synopsis
Trends of Human Plague, Madagascar, 1998–2016
Table 3
Risk factors for death from plague, Madagascar, 1998–2016*
Factor | No. patients | Univariate analysis |
Multivariate analysis |
|||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OR (95% CI) | p value | OR (95% CI) | p value | |||
Delay to seek healthcare, d | ||||||
0 (same day) | 1,142 | 1 | 1 | |||
1 | 2,426 | 0.91 (0.73–1.14) | 0.42 | |||
2 | 1,059 | 2.51 (2.00–3.16) | <0.0001 | 3.24 (2.46–4.28) | <0.0001 | |
3 | 504 | 3.94 (3.01–5.14) | <0.0001 | 4.93 (3.62–6.70) | <0.0001 | |
4 | 288 | 3.99 (2.92–5.44) | <0.0001 | 4.98 (3.48–7.11) | <0.0001 | |
>5 |
385 |
2.20 (1.63–2.97) |
<0.0001 |
2.94 (2.08–4.14) |
<0.0001 |
|
Clinical form of plague | ||||||
Bubonic | 5,114 | 1 | 1 | |||
Pneumonic |
401 |
2.00 (1.57–2.53) |
<0.0001 |
1.58 (1.21–2.06) |
<0.0001 |
|
Time period | ||||||
Until 2009 | 3,977 | 1 | 1 | |||
After 2009 |
1,843 |
1.68 (1.46–1.93) |
<0.0001 |
1.58 (1.34–1.86) |
<0.0001 |
|
Contact with a plague case | ||||||
No | 5,275 | 1 | 1 | |||
Yes |
486 |
1.92 (1.55–2.38) |
<0.0001 |
1.90 (1.47–2.41) |
<0.0001 |
|
Reporting dead rats | ||||||
No | 4,544 | 1 | 1 | |||
Yes |
971 |
0.63 (0.50–0.77) |
<0.0001 |
0.66 (0.52–0.82) |
0.001 |
|
Age, y | ||||||
<5 | 589 | 1 | 1† | |||
5–18 | 2,964 | 0.88 (0.70–1.11) | 0.28 | |||
19–35 | 1,383 | 0.93 (0.73–1.20) | 0.58 | |||
36–54 | 614 | 1.42 (1.08–1.88) | 0.01 | 1.25 (1.01–1.56) 0.04† |
||
>55 |
156 |
1.38 (0.91–2.11) |
0.12 |
|||
Sex | ND | ND | ||||
F | 2,438 | 1 | ND | ND | ||
M |
3,319 |
0.86 (0.75–0.98) |
0.026 |
ND |
ND |
|
Recent travel | ND | ND | ||||
No | 5,214 | 1 | ND | ND | ||
Yes | 422 | 1.37 (1.07–1.75) | 0.010 | ND | ND |
*Model χ2 = 357, df = 10, p<0.0001. ND, not done.
†In multivariate analysis, age groups were merged into 2 groups: <36 y and >36 y.
1These authors contributed equally to this article.
2Current affiliation: Institut Pasteur, Phnom Penh, Cambodia.
3Retired.
4Current affiliation: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.