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Volume 26, Number 12—December 2020
Research

Coronavirus Disease Model to Inform Transmission-Reducing Measures and Health System Preparedness, Australia

Robert Moss, James Wood, Damien Brown, Freya M. Shearer, Andrew J. Black, Kathryn Glass, Allen C. Cheng, James M. McCaw, and Jodie McVernonComments to Author 
Author affiliations: The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (R. Moss, F.M. Shearer, J.M. McCaw, J. McVernon); University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia (J. Wood); The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity at the University of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne (D. Brown, J.M. McCaw, J. McVernon); University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia (A.J. Black); Australian National University, Canberra, New South Wales, Australia (K. Glass); Monash University, Melbourne (A.C. Cheng); Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, Melbourne (J. McVernon)

Main Article

Figure 2

Estimated daily incidence of ICU admission demand per 1 million population during coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic across all age groups, Australia. A) Demand during an unmitigated COVID-19 epidemic. B) COVID-19 epidemic mitigated by case-targeted public health measures. Lines represent single simulations based on median (red), 5th percentile (blue), or 95th percentile (green) final epidemic size. Of note, the more severe epidemic is more delayed by public health interventions due to a higher case proportion seeking medical attention. In a milder event, persons with non–medical seeking cases will continue to transmit in the community. This finding is contingent on the public health response capacity. ICU, intensive care unit.

Figure 2. Estimated daily incidence of ICU admission demand per 1 million population during coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic across all age groups, Australia. A) Demand during an unmitigated COVID-19 epidemic. B) COVID-19 epidemic mitigated by case-targeted public health measures. Lines represent single simulations based on median (red), 5th percentile (blue), or 95th percentile (green) final epidemic size. Of note, the more severe epidemic is more delayed by public health interventions due to a higher case proportion seeking medical attention. In a milder event, persons with non–medical seeking cases will continue to transmit in the community. This finding is contingent on the public health response capacity. ICU, intensive care unit.

Main Article

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