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Volume 26, Number 12—December 2020
Research

Coronavirus Disease Model to Inform Transmission-Reducing Measures and Health System Preparedness, Australia

Robert Moss, James Wood, Damien Brown, Freya M. Shearer, Andrew J. Black, Kathryn Glass, Allen C. Cheng, James M. McCaw, and Jodie McVernonComments to Author 
Author affiliations: The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (R. Moss, F.M. Shearer, J.M. McCaw, J. McVernon); University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia (J. Wood); The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity at the University of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne (D. Brown, J.M. McCaw, J. McVernon); University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia (A.J. Black); Australian National University, Canberra, New South Wales, Australia (K. Glass); Monash University, Melbourne (A.C. Cheng); Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, Melbourne (J. McVernon)

Main Article

Figure 6

Estimated duration of excess demand for healthcare sector services compared with quarantine and isolation scenarios during the COVID-19 epidemic, Australia. The graphs compare exceedance for COVID-19 admissions for A) ICU beds; B) hospital ward beds; C) emergency departments; and D) general practitioner services at baseline, 2×, 3×, and 5× ICU capacity. Blue lines indicate quarantine and isolation only scenarios; green lines indicate overlaid social distancing measures that reduce transmission by an additional 25%; and purple lines indicate overlaid social distancing measures that reduce transmission by an additional 33%. The COVID-19 clinics scenario reflects an alternative triage pathway, and baseline capacity. Dots denote the median; lines range from 5th–95th percentiles of simulations. COVID-19, coronavirus disease; ICU, intensive care unit.

Figure 6. Estimated duration of excess demand for healthcare sector services compared with quarantine and isolation scenarios during the COVID-19 epidemic, Australia. The graphs compare exceedance for COVID-19 admissions for A) ICU beds; B) hospital ward beds; C) emergency departments; and D) general practitioner services at baseline, 2×, 3×, and 5× ICU capacity. Blue lines indicate quarantine and isolation only scenarios; green lines indicate overlaid social distancing measures that reduce transmission by an additional 25%; and purple lines indicate overlaid social distancing measures that reduce transmission by an additional 33%. The COVID-19 clinics scenario reflects an alternative triage pathway, and baseline capacity. Dots denote the median; lines range from 5th–95th percentiles of simulations. COVID-19, coronavirus disease; ICU, intensive care unit.

Main Article

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