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Volume 26, Number 12—December 2020
Research

Coronavirus Disease Model to Inform Transmission-Reducing Measures and Health System Preparedness, Australia

Robert Moss, James Wood, Damien Brown, Freya M. Shearer, Andrew J. Black, Kathryn Glass, Allen C. Cheng, James M. McCaw, and Jodie McVernonComments to Author 
Author affiliations: The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (R. Moss, F.M. Shearer, J.M. McCaw, J. McVernon); University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia (J. Wood); The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity at the University of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne (D. Brown, J.M. McCaw, J. McVernon); University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia (A.J. Black); Australian National University, Canberra, New South Wales, Australia (K. Glass); Monash University, Melbourne (A.C. Cheng); Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, Melbourne (J. McVernon)

Main Article

Table 2

COVID-19 model severity parameter assumptions, relative to all denominator infections*

Age group, y % Hospitalized, range† % Hospitalized in ICU, range‡
0–9
 0.03–0.06
 0.01–0.02
10–19
 0.03–0.06
 0.01–0.02
20–29
 0.39–0.78
 0.11–0.23
30–39
 1.4–2.90
 0.43–0.85
40–49
 2.55–5.11
 0.75–1.50
50–59
 4.95–9.90
 1.45–2.91
60–69
 7.75–15.49
 2.27–4.55
70–79
 17.88–35.76
 5.25–10.50
>80
 32.97–65.94
 9.68–19.36
Mean bed-days
 8 d
 10 d
*COVID-19, coronavirus disease; ICU, intensive care unit.
†Assumed proportional to ICU values and based on calibration to non–Hubei, China, severe case rates (Appendix).
‡Combines use of data from Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre (16) and COVID-19 Task Force of the Department of Infectious Diseases and Computer Service, Italy (17), and assumptions used in Ferguson et al. (18).
§Based on assumptions used in Ferguson et al. (18).

Main Article

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Page created: September 24, 2020
Page updated: November 19, 2020
Page reviewed: November 19, 2020
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