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Volume 26, Number 12—December 2020
Research

Coronavirus Disease Model to Inform Transmission-Reducing Measures and Health System Preparedness, Australia

Robert Moss, James Wood, Damien Brown, Freya M. Shearer, Andrew J. Black, Kathryn Glass, Allen C. Cheng, James M. McCaw, and Jodie McVernonComments to Author 
Author affiliations: The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (R. Moss, F.M. Shearer, J.M. McCaw, J. McVernon); University of New South Wales, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia (J. Wood); The Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity at the University of Melbourne and Royal Melbourne Hospital, Melbourne (D. Brown, J.M. McCaw, J. McVernon); University of Adelaide, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia (A.J. Black); Australian National University, Canberra, New South Wales, Australia (K. Glass); Monash University, Melbourne (A.C. Cheng); Murdoch Children’s Research Institute, Melbourne (J. McVernon)

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Table 1

Parameter assumptions used in a coronavirus disease transmission model, Australia

Parameter Estimate or assumption Justification
Fundamental assumptions
Doubling time 6.4 d Estimated in from early case growth in Wuhan, China, from Wu et al. (11)
Incubation period
5.2 d
Based on Li et al. (12) and Lauer et al. (13)
Derived assumptions
R0 2.53 Based on latent and infectious periods, with doubling time 6.4 d (Appendix)
Latent (noninfectious) period 3.2 d Assumes 2 d of presymptomatic transmission before completion of incubation period, based on contribution estimates from Ganyani et al. (14) and Tindal et al. (15)
Infectious period 9.68 d Estimated, related to doubling time and incubation period (Appendix)

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References
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