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Volume 27, Number 1—January 2021

Attribution of Illnesses Transmitted by Food and Water to Comprehensive Transmission Pathways Using Structured Expert Judgment, United States

Elizabeth BeshearseComments to Author , Beau B. Bruce, Gabriela F. Nane, Roger M. Cooke, Willy Aspinall, Tine Hald, Stacy M. Crim, Patricia M. Griffin, Kathleen E. Fullerton, Sarah A. Collier, Katharine M. Benedict, Michael J. Beach, Aron J. Hall, and Arie H. Havelaar
Author affiliations: University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA (E. Beshearse, A.H. Havelaar); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (B.B. Bruce, S.M. Crim, P.M. Griffin, K.E. Fullerton, S.A. Collier, K.M. Benedict, M.J. Beach, A.J. Hall); Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands (G.F. Nane); Resources for the Future, Washington, DC, USA (R. Cooke); Aspinall & Associates, Tisbury, UK (W. Aspinall); University of Bristol, Bristol, UK (W. Aspinall); Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark (T. Hald)

Main Article

Table 1

Pathogen panels, target questions, and number of experts providing estimates, structured expert judgment, United States, 2017

Panel Pathogen and clinical manifestation target questions No. experts who provided estimates in initial elicitation No. experts who revised estimates No. experts who provided re-elicitation estimates
Panel 1 Acanthamoeba spp., Balamuthia mandrillaris, Naegleria fowleri 14 4 Not required
Panel 2 Astrovirus, norovirus, rotavirus, sapovirus 17 3 Not required
Panel 3 Brucella spp., Mycobacterium bovis 16 5 Not required
Panel 4 Campylobacter spp., Yersinia enterocolitica 19 5 Not required
Panel 5 Cryptosporidium spp.,Giardia spp. 21 5 Not required
Panel 6 Cyclospora cayetanensis 21 4 Not required
Panel 7 Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli, other diarrheagenic E. coli, Shigella spp. 21 3 Not required
Panel 8 Hepatitis A virus 19 2 Not required
Panel 9 Legionella spp., nontuberculous Mycobacterium spp. 9 1 Not required
Panel 10 Pseudomonas spp., otitis externa, pneumonia, septicemia 16 7 7
Panel 11 Salmonella enterica, nontyphoidal: all serotypes and ages, <5 y of age; Enteritidis, Typhimurium, Newport, I 4,[5],12:i:-, Javiana; other serotypes group 1,* other serotypes group 2† 14 3 Not required
Panel 12 Shiga toxin–producing E. coli O157 and non-O157 18 4 Not required
Panel 13 Staphylococcus aureus, group A Streptococcus 19 4 Not required
Panel 14 Toxoplasma gondii 16 3 Not required
Panel 15 Vibrio alginolyticus, AGI, non-AGI; V. cholerae, nontoxigenic, AGI, non-AGI; V. parahaemolyticus, AGI, non-AGI; V. vulnificus,‡ non-AGI; Vibrio spp., other, AGI, non-AGI 15 6 9

*Group 1: serotypes such as Agona, Anatum, Braenderup, Hadar, Heidelberg, Infantis, Oranienburg, Saintpaul, Senftenberg, Thompson. AGI, acute gastrointestinal illness.
†Group 2: serotypes such as Bareilly, Gaminara, Give, Mississippi, Norwich, Pomona, Rubislaw, Tennessee, Urbana, Weltevreden.
‡Clinical manifestations of interest for initial elicitation were bacteremia and wound infections.

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Page created: October 14, 2020
Page updated: January 27, 2021
Page reviewed: January 27, 2021
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.