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Volume 30, Number 2—February 2024
Research

Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States

Yuan Bai1, Zhanwei Du1, Lin Wang1, Eric H.Y. Lau1, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Petter Holme, Benjamin J. Cowling, Alison P. Galvani, Robert M. Krug, and Lauren Ancel MeyersComments to Author 
Author affiliations: The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong (Y. Bai, Z. Du, E.H.Y. Lau, B.J. Cowling); Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong, China (Y. Bai, Z. Du, E.H.Y. Lau, B.J. Cowling); University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK (L. Wang); Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia (E.H.Y. Lau); Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia, USA (I. C.-H. Fung); Aalto University, Espoo, Finland (P. Holme); Kobe University, Kobe, Japan (P. Holme); Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA (A.P. Galvani); University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA (R.M. Krug, L.A. Meyers); Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA (L.A. Meyers)

Main Article

Table 1

Between-host parameter estimates used in study of public health impact of Paxlovid in treatment of COVID-19, United States*

Key parameter Estimated value
Symptomatic proportion, % (ψ) 75
Transition rate out of exposed state (d–1) () 1/3
Time lag between infection and recovery in days for asymptomatic patients (d–1) (γA) 1/9
Time lag between symptom onset and recovery in days for symptomatic patients (d–1) (γT) 1/4
Transition rate from the presymptomatic to the symptomatic stage (d–1) (ω)
 1/2
Age-specific efficacy of Paxlovid in reducing the hospitalization rate, y (φa)
0–4 0.59 (95% CI 0.48–0.71)
5–17 0.59 (95% CI 0.48–0.71)
18–49 0.59 (95% CI 0.48–0.71)
50–64 0.40 (95% CI 0.34–0.48)
>65
 0.53 (95% CI 0.48–0.58)
Life expectancy, y, for age group a, adjusted assuming a 3% yearly discount rate (λa)
0–4 30.3
5–17 29.3
18–49 25.8
50–64 1837
>65 12.9

*We use the between-host model to project population-level impacts of Paxlovid treatment. Key parameter values used in the model are listed below, with more details in Appendix Table 1).

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: December 21, 2023
Page updated: January 24, 2024
Page reviewed: January 24, 2024
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