Volume 30, Number 2—February 2024
Research
Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States
Table 3
Projected health and economic impacts of a large-scale SARS-CoV-2 Paxlovid campaign, United States
Outcome | Rt | Treatment rate, % | Mean (95% CI) |
---|---|---|---|
Infections averted, millions |
1.2 | 20 | 10.54 (3.03–21.12) |
50 | 25.65 (12.59–41.19) | ||
1.7 | 20 | 4.25 (0.00–8.30) | |
50 | 10.65 (5.77–16.70) | ||
3 |
20 | 0.67 (−0.13 to 1.45) | |
50 |
1.68 (0.79–2.77) |
||
Hospitalizations averted, millions |
1.2 | 20 | 0.28 (0.03–0.59) |
50 | 0.67 (0.33–1.25) | ||
1.7 | 20 | 0.48 (0.07–0.92) | |
50 | 1.16 (0.49–1.85) | ||
3 |
20 | 0.85 (0.36–1.38) | |
50 |
2.08 (1.12–2.83) |
||
Deaths averted, thousands |
1.2 | 20 | 33.85 (1.69–71.15) |
50 | 79.11 (35.78–146.51) | ||
1.7 | 20 | 59.43 (9.13–129.86) | |
50 | 145.44 (45.60–221.34) | ||
3 |
20 | 109.67 (35.95–179.83) | |
50 |
266.69 (156.71–362.77) |
||
NMB, USD billions |
1.2 | 20 | $56.95 ($2.62–$122.63) |
50 | $135.60 ($62.52–$261.32) | ||
1.7 | 20 | $95.66 ($8.54–$196.23) | |
50 | $232.35 ($80.45–$379.51) | ||
3 |
20 | $170.17 ($60.49–$286.14) | |
50 |
$417.18 ($208.34–$580.13) |
||
Courses of treatment used, millions | 1.2 | 20 | 5.77 (4.38–7.15) |
50 | 12.13 (8.86–14.89) | ||
1.7 | 20 | 13.57 (12.42–15.12) | |
50 | 32.85 (30.87–34.76) | ||
3 | 20 | 24.41 (22.34–26.56) | |
50 | 60.21 (57.07–63.16) |
*For each combination of treatment rate and reproduction number, the table provides the estimated mean and 95% CI of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths averted in the United States, NMB, and number of courses of treatment administered based on 100 pairs of stochastic simulations (treatment vs. no treatment simulations). NMB, net monetary benefit; Rt, effective reproduction number; USD, US dollars.
1These authors contributed equally to this article.