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Volume 30, Number 2—February 2024
Research

Public Health Impact of Paxlovid as Treatment for COVID-19, United States

Yuan Bai1, Zhanwei Du1, Lin Wang1, Eric H.Y. Lau1, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Petter Holme, Benjamin J. Cowling, Alison P. Galvani, Robert M. Krug, and Lauren Ancel MeyersComments to Author 
Author affiliations: The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong (Y. Bai, Z. Du, E.H.Y. Lau, B.J. Cowling); Hong Kong Science and Technology Park, Hong Kong, China (Y. Bai, Z. Du, E.H.Y. Lau, B.J. Cowling); University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK (L. Wang); Deakin University, Burwood, Victoria, Australia (E.H.Y. Lau); Georgia Southern University, Statesboro, Georgia, USA (I. C.-H. Fung); Aalto University, Espoo, Finland (P. Holme); Kobe University, Kobe, Japan (P. Holme); Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, Connecticut, USA (A.P. Galvani); University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas, USA (R.M. Krug, L.A. Meyers); Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA (L.A. Meyers)

Main Article

Table 3

Projected health and economic impacts of a large-scale SARS-CoV-2 Paxlovid campaign, United States

Outcome Rt Treatment rate, % Mean (95% CI)
Infections averted, millions
 1.2 20 10.54 (3.03–21.12)
50 25.65 (12.59–41.19)
1.7 20 4.25 (0.00–8.30)
50 10.65 (5.77–16.70)
3
 20 0.67 (−0.13 to 1.45)
50
 1.68 (0.79–2.77)
Hospitalizations averted, millions
 1.2 20 0.28 (0.03–0.59)
50 0.67 (0.33–1.25)
1.7 20 0.48 (0.07–0.92)
50 1.16 (0.49–1.85)
3
 20 0.85 (0.36–1.38)
50
 2.08 (1.12–2.83)
Deaths averted, thousands
 1.2 20 33.85 (1.69–71.15)
50 79.11 (35.78–146.51)
1.7 20 59.43 (9.13–129.86)
50 145.44 (45.60–221.34)
3
 20 109.67 (35.95–179.83)
50
 266.69 (156.71–362.77)
NMB, USD billions
 1.2 20 $56.95 ($2.62–$122.63)
50 $135.60 ($62.52–$261.32)
1.7 20 $95.66 ($8.54–$196.23)
50 $232.35 ($80.45–$379.51)
3
 20 $170.17 ($60.49–$286.14)
50
 $417.18 ($208.34–$580.13)
Courses of treatment used, millions 1.2 20 5.77 (4.38–7.15)
50 12.13 (8.86–14.89)
1.7 20 13.57 (12.42–15.12)
50 32.85 (30.87–34.76)
3 20 24.41 (22.34–26.56)
50 60.21 (57.07–63.16)

*For each combination of treatment rate and reproduction number, the table provides the estimated mean and 95% CI of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths averted in the United States, NMB, and number of courses of treatment administered based on 100 pairs of stochastic simulations (treatment vs. no treatment simulations). NMB, net monetary benefit; Rt, effective reproduction number; USD, US dollars.

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: December 21, 2023
Page updated: January 24, 2024
Page reviewed: January 24, 2024
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