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Volume 31, Number 3—March 2025
Research

Model-Based Analysis of Impact, Costs, and Cost-Effectiveness of Tuberculosis Outbreak Investigations, United States

Sourya ShresthaComments to Author , Lucia Cilloni, Garrett R. Beeler Asay, J. Steve Kammerer, Kala Raz, Tambi Shaw, Martin Cilnis, Jonathan Wortham, Suzanne M. Marks, and David Dowdy
Author affiliation: Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA (S. Shrestha, L. Cilloni, D. Dowdy); Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (G.R.B. Asay, J.S. Kammerer, K. Raz, J. Wortham, S.M. Marks); California Department of Public Health, Richmond, California, USA (T. Shaw, M. Cilnis)

Main Article

Table 3

Projected scope of TB outbreak investigations during 2023–2032 in study of impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of TB outbreak investigations, United States*

Projected outcome Point estimate Lower bound Upper bound
No. TB outbreaks with >3 cases investigated 3,350 2,610 4,010
No. outbreak-related TB cases 21,700 14,600 28,800
No. contacts investigated during outbreak investigations 1,030,000 376,000 1,740,000
No. TB cases detected 4,130 1,420 7,640
No. contacts with LTBI detected 104,000 37,600 181,000
No. contacts with LTBI initiating treatment 75,700 27,100 131,000
No. contacts with LTBI completing treatment 61,500 22,000 107,000

*The point estimate is the mean, and the lower and upper bounds represent the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles across all 10,000 simulations. LTBI, latent TB infection; TB, tuberculosis.

Main Article

Page created: January 17, 2025
Page updated: February 21, 2025
Page reviewed: February 21, 2025
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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