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Volume 31, Number 3—March 2025
Research
Model-Based Analysis of Impact, Costs, and Cost-Effectiveness of Tuberculosis Outbreak Investigations, United States
, Lucia Cilloni, Garrett R. Beeler Asay, J. Steve Kammerer, Kala Raz, Tambi Shaw, Martin Cilnis, Jonathan Wortham, Suzanne M. Marks, and David Dowdy
Table 4
Projected epidemiologic impact of TB outbreak investigations, United States, 2023–2037*
| Projected outcome | Point estimate | Lower bound | Upper bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. TB cases averted from early detection† | 1,330 | 266 | 3,650 |
| No. TB cases averted through LTBI treatment‡ | 4,220 | 1,200 | 9,090 |
| Total TB cases averted | 5,560 | 1,720 | 11,400 |
*The point estimate is the mean, and the lower and upper bounds represent the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles across all 10,000 simulations. LTBI, latent TB infection; TB, tuberculosis. †Includes cases expected from transmission that would have occurred within five years, in the absence of outbreak investigation. ‡Includes cases expected to result from reactivation of LTBI that would have occurred within five years among persons who are detected with LTBI and complete LTBI treatment during an outbreak investigation.