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Volume 22, Number 1—January 2016

Research

Human Papillomavirus Prevalence and Herd Immunity after Introduction of Vaccination Program, Scotland, 2009–2013

Ross L. CameronComments to Author , Kimberley Kavanagh, Jiafeng Pan, John Love, Kate Cuschieri, Chris Robertson, Syed Ahmed, Timothy Palmer, and Kevin G.J. Pollock
Author affiliations: Health Protection Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland, UK (R.L. Cameron, J. Love, S. Ahmed, K.G.J. Pollock); University of Strathclyde, Glasgow (K. Kavanagh, J. Pan, C. Robertson); Scottish Human Papillomavirus Reference Laboratory, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK (K. Cuschieri); University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh (T. Palmer)

Main Article

Table 2

Prevalence and unadjusted odds of positivity for HPV types 16 or 18 and cross-protective types stratified by year of sample collection, number of doses received, birth year, and age at vaccination, Scotland, 2009–2013 (N = 5,765)*

Variable
No.
HPV 16 or 18

Cross-protective HPV types†
No. pos
% Pos (95% CI)
Unadjusted OR (95% CI)
No. pos
% Pos (95% CI)
Unadjusted OR (95% CI)
Collection year
2009 1,652 476 28.8 (26.7–31.0) 1 (reference) 215 13.0 (11.5–14.7) 1 (reference)
2010 1,053 333 31.6 (28.9–34.5) 1.14 (0.97–1.35) 143 13.6 (11.6–15.8) 1.05 (0.84–1.32)
2011 1,001 233 23.3 (20.7–26.0) 0.75 (0.63–0.90) 104 10.4 (8.7–12.4) 0.78 (0.60–0.99)
2012 993 169 17.0 (14.8–19.5) 0.51 (0.42–0.62) 83 8.4 (6.8–10.2) 0.61 (0.47–0.79)
2013
1,016
103
10.1 (8.40–12.2)
0.28 (0.22–0.35)

64
6.3 (5.0–8.0)
0.45 (0.33–0.60)
No. doses vaccine received
0 3,619 1062 29.4 (27.9–30.9) 1 (reference) 468 12.9 (11.9–14.1) 1 (reference)
1 89 20 22.5 (15.0–32.2) 0.70 (0.41–1.13) 15 16.9 (10.5–26.0) 1.37 (0.75–2.33)
2 154 28 18.2 (12.9–25.0) 0.54 (0.35–0.80) 11 7.1 (4.0–12.3) 0.52 (0.26–0.92)
3
1,853
204
11.0 (9.70–12.5)
0.30 (0.25–0.35)

115
6.2 (5.2–7.4)
0.45 (0.36–0.55)
Birth year
1988 844 251 29.7 (26.8–32.9) 1 (reference) 119 14.1 (11.9–16.6) 1 (reference)
1989 1,196 343 28.7 (26.2–31.3) 0.96 (0.79–1.17) 140 11.7 (10–13.7) 0.82 (0.63–1.06)
1990 1,204 349 29.0 (26.5–31.6) 0.97 (0.80–1.18) 155 12.9 (11.1–14.9) 0.91 (0.70–1.17)
1991 867 175 20.2 (17.6–23.0) 0.60 (0.48–0.74) 80 9.2 (7.5–11.3) 0.62 (0.46–0.83)
1992 1,261 169 13.4 (11.6–15.4) 0.36 (0.29–0.45) 90 7.1 (5.8–8.7) 0.47 (0.35–0.62)
1993
393
27
6.90 (4.8–9.8)
0.17 (0.11–0.26)

25
6.4 (4.3–9.2)
0.41 (0.26–0.63)
Age at vaccination, y‡
15–16 970 75 7.7 (6.2–9.6) 1 (reference) 52 5.4 (4.1–7.0) 1 (reference)
17 631 79 12.5 (10.2–15.3) 1.70 (1.22–2.38) 47 7.4 (5.6–9.8) 1.42 (0.94–2.13)
18 391 65 16.6 (13.3–20.6) 2.38 (1.67–3.40) 30 7.7 (5.4–10.7) 1.47 (0.91–2.32)
>18 109 33 30.3 (22.4–39.5) 5.31 (3.28–8.48) 12 11 (6.4–18.3) 2.23 (1.1–4.18)

*HPV, human papillomavirus; OR, odds ratio; pos, positive.
†HPV types 31, 33, or 45.
‡For those vaccinated.

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