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Volume 22, Number 1—January 2016

Research

Human Papillomavirus Prevalence and Herd Immunity after Introduction of Vaccination Program, Scotland, 2009–2013

Ross L. CameronComments to Author , Kimberley Kavanagh, Jiafeng Pan, John Love, Kate Cuschieri, Chris Robertson, Syed Ahmed, Timothy Palmer, and Kevin G.J. Pollock
Author affiliations: Health Protection Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland, UK (R.L. Cameron, J. Love, S. Ahmed, K.G.J. Pollock); University of Strathclyde, Glasgow (K. Kavanagh, J. Pan, C. Robertson); Scottish Human Papillomavirus Reference Laboratory, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK (K. Cuschieri); University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh (T. Palmer)

Main Article

Table 3

Adjusted odds of positivity for HPV 16 or 18 and cross-protective HPV types by birth year, number of doses of vaccine received, SIMD score, and age at vaccination, Scotland, 2009–2013*

Adjusted OR (95% CI)‡ Linear trend p value Adjusted OR (95% CI)‡ Linear trend p value
Birth year 0.0005 0.2413
1988 1 (reference) 1 (reference)
1989 0.96 (0.79–1.17) 0.82 (0.63–1.06)
1990 1.02 (0.84–1.24) 0.97 (0.75–1.27)
1991 0.97 (0.75–1.25) 0.86 (0.60–1.21)
1992 0.84 (0.63–1.11) 0.77 (0.53–1.12)
1993
0.43 (0.26–0.67)


0.72 (0.42–1.20)

No. doses vaccine received <0.0001 <0.0001
0 1 (reference) 1 (reference)
1 0.45 (0.24–0.84) 1.15 (0.54–2.33)
2 0.39 (0.23–0.67) 0.46 (0.21–0.94)
3
0.27 (0.19–0.37)


0.45 (0.29–0.68)

SIMD quintile 0.0322 0.0028
1 (most deprived) 1 (reference) 1 (reference)
2 0.84 (0.70–1.02) 1.05 (0.82–1.33)
3 0.85 (0.70–1.03) 0.93 (0.72–1.19)
4 0.91 (0.75–1.11) 0.72 (0.54–0.94)
5 (least deprived)
0.75 (0.62–0.92)


0.76 (0.58–0.99)

Age at vaccination, y§ <0.0001 0.3736
15–16 1 (reference) 1 (reference)
17 1.33 (0.92–1.91) 1.26 (0.80–1.98)
18 1.65 (1.07–2.53) 1.19 (0.67–2.08)
>18 3.41 (1.98–5.82) 1.50 (0.68–3.12)

*HPV, human papillomavirus; OR, odds ratio; SIMD, Scottish Index of Multiple Deprivation.
†HPV types 31, 33, or 45.
‡Adjusted for birth year, SIMD score, and age at vaccination.
§For those vaccinated.

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