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Volume 22, Number 1—January 2016

Research

Human Papillomavirus Prevalence and Herd Immunity after Introduction of Vaccination Program, Scotland, 2009–2013

Ross L. CameronComments to Author , Kimberley Kavanagh, Jiafeng Pan, John Love, Kate Cuschieri, Chris Robertson, Syed Ahmed, Timothy Palmer, and Kevin G.J. Pollock
Author affiliations: Health Protection Scotland, Glasgow, Scotland, UK (R.L. Cameron, J. Love, S. Ahmed, K.G.J. Pollock); University of Strathclyde, Glasgow (K. Kavanagh, J. Pan, C. Robertson); Scottish Human Papillomavirus Reference Laboratory, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK (K. Cuschieri); University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh (T. Palmer)

Main Article

Table 4

Prevalence and unadjusted odds of high-risk HPV excluding vaccine and cross-protective types and any HPV by year of sample collection, number of doses received, birth year, and age at vaccination, Scotland, 2009–2013 (N = 5,765)*

No. pos % Pos (95% CI) Unadjusted OR (95% CI) No. pos % Pos (95% CI) Unadjusted OR (95% CI)
Collection year
2009 1,652 480 29.1 (26.9–31.3) 1 (reference) 959 58.1 (55.7–60.4) 1 (reference)
2010 1,053 364 34.6 (31.7–37.5) 1.29 (1.09–1.52) 618 58.7 (55.7–61.6) 1.01 (0.86–1.18)
2011 1,001 330 33.0 (30.1–35.9) 1.20 (1.01–1.42) 587 58.6 (55.6–61.7) 1.05 (0.89–1.23)
2012 993 352 35.5 (32.5–38.4) 1.34 (1.13–1.59) 580 58.4 (55.3–61.4) 1.04 (0.88–1.21)
2013
1,016
344
33.9 (31.0–36.8)
1.25 (1.06–1.48)

547
53.8 (50.8–56.8)
0.87 (0.74–1.02)
No. doses
0 3,619 1,176 32.5 (31.0–34.0) 1 (reference) 2162 59.7 (58.1–61.3) 1 (reference)
1 89 32 36.0 (26.8–46.3) 1.17 (0.75–1.80) 55 61.8 (51.4–71.2) 1.12 (0.73–1.75)
2 154 53 34.4 (27.4–42.2) 1.09 (0.77–1.52) 91 59.0 (51.2–66.5) 1.00 (0.73–1.40)
3
1,853
609
32.9 (30.8–35.0)
1.02 (0.90–1.15)

983
53.1 (50.7–55.3)
0.78 (0.70–0.87)
Birth year
1988 844 235 27.8 (24.9–31.0) 1 (reference) 477 56.5 (53.2–59.8) 1 (reference)
1989 1,196 371 31.0 (28.5–33.7) 1.18 (0.98–1.44) 700 58.5 (55.7–61.3) 1.09 (0.91–1.30)
1990 1,204 413 34.3 (31.7–37.0) 1.37 (1.13–1.66) 697 57.9 (55.1–60.6) 1.06 (0.89–1.26)
1991 867 287 33.1 (30.1–36.3) 1.28 (1.04–1.58) 515 59.4 (56.1–62.6) 1.13 (0.93–1.36)
1992 1,261 435 34.5 (31.9–37.2) 1.36 (1.12–1.64) 706 56.0 (53.2–58.7) 0.98 (0.82–1.17)
1993
393
129
32.8 (28.4–37.6)
1.25 (0.97–1.62)

196
49.9 (45.0–54.8)
0.77 (0.60–0.97)
Age at vaccination, y‡
15–16 970 305 31.4 (28.6–34.4) 1 (reference) 491 50.6 (47.5–53.8) 1 (reference)
17 631 241 38.2 (34.5–42.0) 1.34 (1.09–1.66) 358 56.7 (52.8–60.5) 1.28 (1.05–1.57)
18 391 116 29.7 (25.4–34.4) 0.92 (0.71–1.19) 220 56.3 (51.3–61.1) 1.26 (0.99–1.59)
>18 109 32 29.4 (21.6–38.5) 0.93 (0.59–1.42) 60 55.0 (45.7–64.1) 1.19 (0.80–1.78)

*HPV, human papillomavirus; OR, odds ratio; pos, positive.
†HPV 35, 39, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, or 68.
‡For those vaccinated.

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