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Volume 22, Number 12—December 2016
Synopsis

Assessing the Epidemic Potential of RNA and DNA Viruses

Mark E.J. WoolhouseComments to Author , Liam Brierley, Chris McCaffery, and Sam Lycett
Author affiliations: University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK

Main Article

Figure 3

Distribution of outbreak sizes for RNA and DNA viruses as plots of outbreak size x (horizontal axis) versus fraction of outbreaks of size >x (vertical axis), both on logarithmic scales. Data are shown for 4 infectious diseases. Squares indicates Andes virus disease in South America (24); diamonds indicate monkeypox in Africa (26); circles indicate Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East (25); and triangles indicate filovirus (all species) diseases in Africa before 2013 (27). For c

Figure 3. Distribution of outbreak sizes for RNA and DNA viruses as plots of outbreak size x (horizontal axis) versus fraction of outbreaks of size >x (vertical axis), both on logarithmic scales. Data are shown for 4 infectious diseases. Squares indicates Andes virus disease in South America (24); diamonds indicate monkeypox in Africa (26); circles indicate Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East (25); and triangles indicate filovirus (all species) diseases in Africa before 2013 (27). For comparison, expected values for the case R0 = 1, obtained from the expression for the probability of an outbreak of size >x, P(x) = Γ(x – 1/2)/√πΓ(x), are also shown (dashed line). Data for filoviruses are not consistent with expectation for R0<1.

Main Article

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Page updated: November 17, 2016
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The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
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