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Volume 28, Number 6—June 2022

Research

Risk Prediction Score for Pediatric Patients with Suspected Ebola Virus Disease

Alicia E. Genisca1Comments to Author , Tzu-Chun Chu1, Lawrence Huang, Monique Gainey, Moyinoluwa Adeniji, Eta N. Mbong, Stephen B. Kennedy, Razia Laghari, Fiston Nganga, Rigo F. Muhayangabo, Himanshu Vaishnav, Shiromi M. Perera, Andrés Colubri2, Adam C. Levine2, and Ian C. Michelow23Comments to Author 
Author affiliations: Brown Emergency Medicine, Providence, Rhode Island, USA (A.E. Genisca, H. Vaishnav, A.C. Levine); Alpert Medical School of Brown University, Providence (A.E. Genisca, A.C. Levine, I.C. Michelow); University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA (T.C. Chu); Brown University, Providence (L. Huang, M. Adeniji); Rhode Island Hospital, Providence (M. Gainey); International Medical Corps, Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo (E.N. Mbong, R. Laghari, F. Nganga, R.F. Muhayangabo); Ministry of Health, Monrovia, Liberia (S.B. Kennedy); International Medical Corps, Washington, DC, USA (S.M. Perera); University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School, Worcester, Massachusetts, USA (A. Colubri)

Main Article

Table 3

Performance measures of Pediatric Ebola Risk Score at different cut points and WHO criteria in West Africa cohort, September 2014 – September 2015

Measure
 Measure, % (95% CI)
Sensitivity
 Specificity
 PPV
 NPV
 LR+
 LR–
Score
>0 98.3 (94.1–99.8) 26.2 (21.9–30.8) 28.5 (24.2–33.1) 98.1 (93.4–99.8) 1.33 (1.25–1.42) 0.06 (0.02–0.25)
>1 95.8 (90.5–98.6) 52.4 (47.3–57.3) 37.6 (32.1–43.3) 97.7 (94.7–99.2) 2.01 (1.8–2.24) 0.08 (0.03–0.19)
>2 94.2 (88.4–97.6) 60.1 (55.1–64.9) 41.4 (35.5–47.5) 97.2 (94.3–98.9) 2.36 (2.08–2.68) 0.10 (0.05–0.2)
>3 79.2 (70.8–86.0) 81.8 (77.7–85.4) 56.6 (48.7–64.2) 92.9 (89.7–95.4) 4.35 (3.47–5.46) 0.25 (0.18–0.36)
>4
 26.7 (19.0–35.5)
 98.0 (96.1–99.1)
 80.0 (64.4–90.9)
 81.7 (78.0–85.1)
 13.4 (6.33–28.2)
 0.75 (0.67–0.83)
WHO criteria 83.3 (75.4–89.5) 28.9 (24.5–33.6) 26.0 (21.7–30.7) 85.3 (78.2–90.8) 1.17 (1.06–1.30) 0.58 (0.38–0.88)

*LR+, true positive/false positive likelihood ratio; LR–, false negative/true negative likelihood ratio; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; WHO, World Health Organization.

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.

2These authors contributed equally to this article.

3Current affiliation: Pediatric Infectious Diseases & Immunology, Connecticut Children’s Medical Center, Hartford, Connecticut, USA.

Page created: April 11, 2022
Page updated: May 22, 2022
Page reviewed: May 22, 2022
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