Volume 28, Number 6—June 2022
Research
Risk Prediction Score for Pediatric Patients with Suspected Ebola Virus Disease
Table 5
Performance measures of Pediatric Ebola Risk Score at different cut points and World Health Organization criteria in Democratic Republic of the Congo cohort, December 2018–December 2019*
Measure | Measure, % (95% CI) |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | LR+ |
LR– | ||
Score | |||||||
≥0 | 91.7 (83.6–96.6) | 4.5 (3.4–5.8) | 6.1 (4.8–7.5) | 88.9 (78.4–95.4) | 0.96 (0.90–1.02) | 1.86 (0.88–3.96) | |
≥1 | 88.1 (79.2–94.1) | 16.3 (14.3–18.5) | 6.60 (5.21–8.21) | 95.3 (91.6–97.7) | 1.05 (0.97–1.14) | 0.73 (0.40–1.32) | |
≥2 | 79.8 (69.6–87.7) | 41.9 (39.1–44.6) | 8.43 (6.59–10.6) | 96.9 (95.0–98.2) | 1.37 (1.22–1.54) | 0.48 (0.31–0.74) | |
≥3 | 53.6 (42.4–64.5) | 87.3 (85.3–89.1) | 22.1 (16.6–28.4) | 96.6 (95.3–97.5) | 4.22 (3.30–5.40) | 0.53 (0.42–0.67) | |
≥4 |
16.7 (9.42–26.4) |
96.4 (95.2–97.4) |
23.7 (13.6–36.6) |
94.5 (93.1–95.7) |
4.64 (2.65–8.10) |
0.86 (0.79–0.95) |
|
WHO criteria | 77.4 (67.0–85.8) | 62.2 (59.5–64.9) | 12.1 (9.45–15.1) | 97.6 (96.3–98.6) | 2.05 (1.79–2.35) | 0.36 (0.24–0.54) |
*Patients with missing Ebola contact information (n = 910) were assigned with a risk score of no known group. LR, likelihood ratio; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; WHO, World Health Organization.
1These authors contributed equally to this article.
2These authors contributed equally to this article.
3Current affiliation: Pediatric Infectious Diseases & Immunology, Connecticut Children’s Medical Center, Hartford, Connecticut, USA.