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Volume 28, Number 6—June 2022
Research

Risk Prediction Score for Pediatric Patients with Suspected Ebola Virus Disease

Alicia E. Genisca1Comments to Author , Tzu-Chun Chu1, Lawrence Huang, Monique Gainey, Moyinoluwa Adeniji, Eta N. Mbong, Stephen B. Kennedy, Razia Laghari, Fiston Nganga, Rigo F. Muhayangabo, Himanshu Vaishnav, Shiromi M. Perera, Andrés Colubri2, Adam C. Levine2, and Ian C. Michelow23Comments to Author 
Author affiliations: Brown Emergency Medicine, Providence, Rhode Island, USA (A.E. Genisca, H. Vaishnav, A.C. Levine); Alpert Medical School of Brown University, Providence (A.E. Genisca, A.C. Levine, I.C. Michelow); University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, USA (T.C. Chu); Brown University, Providence (L. Huang, M. Adeniji); Rhode Island Hospital, Providence (M. Gainey); International Medical Corps, Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo (E.N. Mbong, R. Laghari, F. Nganga, R.F. Muhayangabo); Ministry of Health, Monrovia, Liberia (S.B. Kennedy); International Medical Corps, Washington, DC, USA (S.M. Perera); University of Massachusetts Chan Medical School, Worcester, Massachusetts, USA (A. Colubri)

Main Article

Table 5

Performance measures of Pediatric Ebola Risk Score at different cut points and World Health Organization criteria in Democratic Republic of the Congo cohort, December 2018–December 2019*

Measure Measure, % (95% CI)
Sensitivity Specificity PPV NPV LR+
 LR–
Score
≥0 91.7 (83.6–96.6) 4.5 (3.4–5.8) 6.1 (4.8–7.5) 88.9 (78.4–95.4) 0.96 (0.90–1.02) 1.86 (0.88–3.96)
≥1 88.1 (79.2–94.1) 16.3 (14.3–18.5) 6.60 (5.21–8.21) 95.3 (91.6–97.7) 1.05 (0.97–1.14) 0.73 (0.40–1.32)
≥2 79.8 (69.6–87.7) 41.9 (39.1–44.6) 8.43 (6.59–10.6) 96.9 (95.0–98.2) 1.37 (1.22–1.54) 0.48 (0.31–0.74)
≥3 53.6 (42.4–64.5) 87.3 (85.3–89.1) 22.1 (16.6–28.4) 96.6 (95.3–97.5) 4.22 (3.30–5.40) 0.53 (0.42–0.67)
≥4
 16.7 (9.42–26.4)
 96.4 (95.2–97.4)
 23.7 (13.6–36.6)
 94.5 (93.1–95.7)
 4.64 (2.65–8.10)
 0.86 (0.79–0.95)
WHO criteria 77.4 (67.0–85.8) 62.2 (59.5–64.9) 12.1 (9.45–15.1) 97.6 (96.3–98.6) 2.05 (1.79–2.35) 0.36 (0.24–0.54)

*Patients with missing Ebola contact information (n = 910) were assigned with a risk score of no known group. LR, likelihood ratio; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; WHO, World Health Organization.

Main Article

1These authors contributed equally to this article.

2These authors contributed equally to this article.

3Current affiliation: Pediatric Infectious Diseases & Immunology, Connecticut Children’s Medical Center, Hartford, Connecticut, USA.

Page created: April 11, 2022
Page updated: May 22, 2022
Page reviewed: May 22, 2022
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