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Volume 30, Number 8—August 2024
Dispatch

Spatiotemporal Modeling of Cholera, Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2016−2020

Ruwan RatnayakeComments to Author , Jackie Knee, Oliver Cumming, Jaime Mufitini Saidi, Baron Bashige Rumedeka, Flavio Finger, Andrew S. Azman, W. John Edmunds, Francesco Checchi1, and Karin Gallandat1
Author affiliations: London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK (R. Ratnayake, J. Knee, O. Cumming, W.J. Edmunds, F. Checchi, K. Gallandat); Ministère de la Santé Publique, Division Provinciale de la Santé du Sud-Kivu, Zone de Santé d’Uvira, Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo (J.M. Saidi, B.B. Rumedeka); Epicentre, Paris, France (F. Finger); Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland, USA (A.S. Azman); Geneva University Hospitals, Geneva, Switzerland (A.S. Azman)

Main Article

Table

Statistically significant spatiotemporal clusters of RDT-positive cholera cases detected through annual scanning at the avenue level, Uvira, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2016−2020*

Year No. Cases observed: expected Population at risk RR† Cluster radius, meters Cluster start date Cluster duration, d Signal delay, d‡ Size at signal, no. cases
2016
 1 20:1 30,553 20.9§ 1,140 Aug 5 18 8 11
2 28:3 34,232 10.5§ 497 Jun 25 48 0 2
3 17:1 30,758 13.8§ 717 Jul 22 23 5 12
4 15:1 31,240 11.9§ 758 Jun 29 23 1 4
5 4:0 6,579 344.4§ 376 Apr 9 1 0 3
6 14:2 30,082 8.8§ 668 Jul 21 30 0 3
7
 9:1
 27,452
 12.6¶
 368
 Jul 26
 14
 3
 4
2017
 1 48:4 51,012 13.0§ 811 Aug 7 40 2 2
2 32:2 43,992 16.4§ 657 Aug 20 23 1 13
3 32:4 49,794 7.7§ 880 Aug 23 44 0 2
4 13:1 51,016 16.4§ 378 Dec 24 7 0 2
5
 12:2
 50,635
 7.6¶
 368
 Aug 23
 15
 12
 2
2018
 1 20:1 28,884 26.6§ 1,116 Oct 26 13 6 9
2 11:1 31,204 22.7§ 475 Feb 13 7 0 3
3 8:0 25,148 40.6§ 662 Aug 28 3 0 4
4
 7:0
 17,345
 18.6¶
 308
 Nov 10
 10
 1
 3
2019
 1 23:1 33,751 18.6§ 743 Sep 10 18 1 7
2 21:3 33,162 9.0§ 755 Sep 7 35 0 12
3 12:1 16,210 12.3§ 309 Apr 27 29 1 2
4 11:1 16,495 13.2§ 527 Sep 7 24 0 2
5
 6:0
 15,001
 27.8¶
 368
 Jun 30
 6
 0
 2
2020 1 42:6 60,378 7.8§ 1,048 Jul 29 58 2 3
2 27:3 42,423 8.7§ 599 Jul 15 46 23 21
3 17:1 56,029 19.1§ 1,582 Feb 20 9 0 2
4 30:5 63,207 6.5§ 343 May 30 46 2 6
5 32:6 63,593 5.8§ 501 Jun 1 55 4 6

*RDT, rapid diagnostic test; RR, relative risk. †p values indicate the statistical significance of clusters derived from Monte Carlo simulations. ‡Signal delay indicates the number of days between retrospective detection date with all available data and the earliest prospective detection date. §p<0.001. ¶p<0.05.

Main Article

1These senior authors contributed equally to this article.

Page created: June 25, 2024
Page updated: July 22, 2024
Page reviewed: July 22, 2024
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