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Volume 23, Number 1—January 2017

Research

Modeling Tool for Decision Support during Early Days of an Anthrax Event

Gabriel RainischComments to Author , Martin I. Meltzer1, Sean Shadomy, William A. Bower, and Nathaniel Hupert1
Author affiliations: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia, USA (G. Rainisch, M.I. Meltzer, S. Shadomy, W.A. Bower, N. Hupert); Weill Cornell Medical College and New York–Presbyterian Hospital, New York, New York, USA (N. Hupert)

Main Article

Figure 2

Comparison of the estimated cumulative epidemic curve by using 3 days of surveillance data with the actual event curve (A), and comparison of the median estimated cumulative epidemic curve with the actual event curve (B), by days of surveillance data available. Actual case data are case counts from the 1979 Sverdlovsk (USSR) anthrax outbreak (12), inflated by a factor of 10. Estimates were produced by using the first days of case data from that event (20 cases on day 1, 10 on day 2, 70 on day 3,

Figure 2. Comparison of the estimated cumulative epidemic curve by using 3 days of surveillance data with the actual event curve (A), and comparison of the median estimated cumulative epidemic curve with the actual event curve (B), by days of surveillance data available. Actual case data are case counts from the 1979 Sverdlovsk (USSR) anthrax outbreak (12), inflated by a factor of 10. Estimates were produced by using the first days of case data from that event (20 cases on day 1, 10 on day 2, 70 on day 3, and 40 on day 4) and other Epidemic-Curve model values listed in Table 2.

Main Article

1These senior authors contributed equally to this article.

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