Volume 23, Number 1—January 2017
Research
Modeling Tool for Decision Support during Early Days of an Anthrax Event
Table 4
Effects of individual PEP campaign factors*
| Variable | Median projected caseload with PEP campaign, no. | Projected averted cases from campaign start, no. (%)† | Projected averted deaths, no. (%)‡ | Peak hospitalizations, no. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Days required to provide PEP to entire target population | ||||
| 1 | 580 | 583 (55) | 190 (47) | 339 |
| 2§ | 614 | 550 (52) | 183 (45) | 363 |
| 3 | 651 | 513 (48) | 166 (41) | 385 |
| 4 | 680 | 483 (46) | 160 (39) | 405 |
| 5 | 723 | 441 (41) | 142 (35) | 431 |
| 6 |
749 |
415 (39) |
135 (33) |
448 |
| Delay to PEP campaign start, d¶ | ||||
| 2§ | 614 | 550 (52) | 183 (45) | 363 |
| 3 | 681 | 482 (45) | 156 (38) | 402 |
| 4 | 753 | 411 (39) | 131 (32) | 450 |
| 5 | 821 | 343 (32) | 107 (26) | 494 |
| 6 |
881 |
283 (27) |
88 (22) |
535 |
| PEP uptake, %# | ||||
| 15 | 1,034 | 130 (12) | 47 (12) | 618 |
| 40 | 824 | 340 (32) | 111 (27) | 489 |
| 65§ | 614 | 550 (52) | 183 (45) | 363 |
| 90 |
404 |
760 (71) |
259 (63) |
235 |
| Antimicrobial efficacy, % | ||||
| 10 | 1,099 | 64 (6) | 19 (5) | 653 |
| 50 | 857 | 307 (29) | 97 (24) | 508 |
| 90§ |
614 |
550 (52) |
183 (45) |
363 |
| Adherence to regimen at event day 60, % | ||||
| 15 | 631 | 533 (50) | 174 (43) | 370 |
| 40§ | 614 | 550 (52) | 183 (45) | 363 |
| 65 | 597 | 566 (53) | 184 (45) | 353 |
| 90 | 581 | 583 (55) | 192 (47) | 342 |
*Estimates were calculated by using values shown in Table 2. Base case scenario is the same as PEP evaluation scenario 3 (practical) using 3 days of case data (Table 3). Without a PEP campaign, the median projected caseload would be 1,164 (Table 3, Scenario 1 [no PEP]) using 3 days of case data. PEP, postexposure prophylaxis.
†% = PEP averted cases/(median attack size estimate without a PEP campaign – cases detected to date)
‡% = PEP averted deaths/(median attack size deaths estimate without a PEP campaign). This calculation assumes no deaths within the first 3 event days.
§Baseline scenario value (Table 2).
¶Determined by counting days from date of earliest illness onset (i.e., event day 1).
#Percentage of population targeted to receive prophylaxis who actually obtain and start prophylaxis.
1These senior authors contributed equally to this article.