Volume 23, Number 1—January 2017
Modeling Tool for Decision Support during Early Days of an Anthrax Event
||1) Case counts by illness-onset date||1) Cumulative caseload||How the event unfolds:|
|2) Incubation period distribution||2) Unmitigated epidemic curve||1) Size of event|
|2) How quickly people become ill
||1) Epidemic curve (output from Epidemic Curve model)||1) Cases prevented by PEP||1) Initiate a PEP campaign and when to begin|
|2) Dispensing plan||2) PEP-mitigated epidemic curve||2) How much PEP to dispense|
|3) Effectiveness||3) Dispensing resource requirements
|4) Population needing prophylaxis
|Healthcare Impact||1) Unmitigated epidemic curve (output from Epidemic Curve model) or PEP-mitigated epidemic curve (output from PEP Impact model)||1) Hospital demand curves:||1) Treatment guidance:|
|a) ED surge||a) messaging to public|
|b) treatment load||b) standards of care|
|2) Disease progression||2) Deaths curve||2) Set treatment priorities|
|3) Treatment-seeking behavior||3) Recovered curve||3) Mobilize medical care resources|
|4) Treatment effectiveness and availability|
*ED, emergency department; PEP, postexposure prophylaxis.
1These senior authors contributed equally to this article.
Page created: December 14, 2016
Page updated: December 14, 2016
Page reviewed: December 14, 2016
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