Volume 23, Number 1—January 2017
Research
Modeling Tool for Decision Support during Early Days of an Anthrax Event
Table 1
Anthrax Assist models and associated inputs, outputs, and public health decisions supported*
| Model | Inputs | Outputs | Decision informed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Epidemic Curve |
1) Case counts by illness-onset date | 1) Cumulative caseload | How the event unfolds: |
| 2) Incubation period distribution | 2) Unmitigated epidemic curve | 1) Size of event | |
| 2) How quickly people become ill |
|||
| PEP Impact |
1) Epidemic curve (output from Epidemic Curve model) | 1) Cases prevented by PEP | 1) Initiate a PEP campaign and when to begin |
| 2) Dispensing plan | 2) PEP-mitigated epidemic curve | 2) How much PEP to dispense | |
| 3) Effectiveness | 3) Dispensing resource requirements |
||
| 4) Population needing prophylaxis |
|||
| Healthcare Impact | 1) Unmitigated epidemic curve (output from Epidemic Curve model) or PEP-mitigated epidemic curve (output from PEP Impact model) | 1) Hospital demand curves: | 1) Treatment guidance: |
| a) ED surge | a) messaging to public | ||
| b) treatment load | b) standards of care | ||
| 2) Disease progression | 2) Deaths curve | 2) Set treatment priorities | |
| 3) Treatment-seeking behavior | 3) Recovered curve | 3) Mobilize medical care resources | |
| 4) Treatment effectiveness and availability |
*ED, emergency department; PEP, postexposure prophylaxis.
1These senior authors contributed equally to this article.
Page created: December 14, 2016
Page updated: December 14, 2016
Page reviewed: December 14, 2016
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