Volume 23, Number 1—January 2017
Modeling Tool for Decision Support during Early Days of an Anthrax Event
|Scenario (description)||Logistics components||Drug-use components|
|Scenario 1 (no PEP)||Not applicable||Not applicable|
|Scenario 2 (ideal)||1-day delay,† 1-day campaign||90% uptake,‡ 80% adherence§|
|Scenario 3 (practical: logistics follow CRI guidance, and utilization data based on the Amerithrax attacks)||2-day delay,† 2-day campaign||65% uptake,‡ 40% adherence§|
|Scenario 4 (constrained)||2-day delay,† 4-day campaign||40% uptake,‡ 25% adherence§|
*Amerithrax, anthrax attacks in the United States during 2001; CRI, Cities Readiness Initiative; PEP, postexposure prophylaxis.
†Delay days are determined by counting the days from the date of earliest illness onset (i.e., event day 1). Public health messaging also begins on the same day as the campaign. The delay dictates the number of days of case data potentially available as input. Two days of case data are available as input in Scenario 2, and 3 days are available as input in Scenarios 3 and 4.
‡Proportion of the population targeted by public health officials to receive PEP who actually obtain and start PEP (11).
§Proportion fully adhering to the PEP regimen on event day 60 (18).
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1These senior authors contributed equally to this article.