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Volume 32, Number 3—March 2026

Research

Projected Effects of Changing Global Tuberculosis Epidemiology on Mycobacterium tuberculosis Immunoreactivity Prevalence, 2024–2050

Michelle Machado, Aria Ed Jordan, Alvaro Schwalb, Rein M.G.J. Houben, Peter J. Dodd, Katie Dale, Kevin Schwartzman, and Jonathon R. CampbellComments to Author 
Author affiliation: McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada (M. Machado, K. Schwartzman, J.R. Campbell); University of Minnesota Foundation, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA (A.E. Jordan); Instituto de Medicina Tropical Alexander von Humboldt, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru (A. Schwalb); TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK (A. Schwalb, R.M.G.J. Houben); Sheffield Centre for Health and Related Research, School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK (P.J. Dodd); Victorian Tuberculosis Program, Royal Melbourne Hospital, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (K. Dale); The University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne (K. Dale); McGill International TB Centre, Montreal (K. Schwartzman, J.R. Campbell); Centre for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre, Montreal (K. Schwartzman, J.R. Campbell)

Main Article

Figure 1

Projected immunoreactivity in study of effects of global tuberculosis epidemiology on Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity prevalence, 2024–2050. Graphs show projected prevalence of M. tuberculosis immunoreactivity among immigrants from China (A), India (B), the Philippines (C), and Vietnam (D) under the status quo scenario, i.e., assuming continuation of projected annual risk for infection trends without additional reduction. Solid lines represent median estimates, and shaded areas indicate 95% uncertainty intervals.

Figure 1. Projected immunoreactivity in study of effects of global tuberculosis epidemiology on Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity prevalence, 2024–2050. Graphs show projected prevalence of M. tuberculosis immunoreactivity among immigrants from China (A), India (B), the Philippines (C), and Vietnam (D) under the status quo scenario, i.e., assuming continuation of projected annual risk for infection trends without additional reduction. Solid lines represent median estimates, and shaded areas indicate 95% uncertainty intervals.

Main Article

Page created: February 09, 2026
Page updated: March 25, 2026
Page reviewed: March 25, 2026
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