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Projected Effects of Changing Global Tuberculosis Epidemiology on Mycobacterium tuberculosis Prevalence and Immunoreactivity, 2024–2050
Michelle Machado, Aria Ed Jordan, Alvaro Schwalb, Rein M.G.J. Houben, Peter J. Dodd, Katie Dale, Kevin Schwartzman, and Jonathon R. Campbell
Author affiliation: McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada (M. Machado, K. Schwartzman, J.R. Campbell); University of Minnesota Foundation, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA (A.E. Jordan); Instituto de Medicina Tropical Alexander von Humboldt, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru (A. Schwalb); TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK (A. Schwalb, R.M.G.J. Houben); Sheffield Centre for Health and Related Research, School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK (P.J. Dodd); Victorian Tuberculosis Program, Royal Melbourne Hospital, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (K. Dale); The University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne (K. Dale); McGill International TB Centre, Montreal (K. Schwartzman, J.R. Campbell); Centre for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre, Montreal (K. Schwartzman, J.R. Campbell)
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Figure 3
Figure 3. Projected effects on tuberculosis (TB) incidence and Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity in study of effects of global tuberculosis epidemiology on M. tuberculosis prevalence and immunoreactivity, 2024–2050. Graphs show effects over time among immigrants from India under 3 scenarios for reduction in annual risk for infection: A) 1% additional reduction; B) 3% additional reduction; C) 5% additional reduction. Solid lines represent median estimates; shaded areas indicate 95% uncertainty intervals. Red line indicates status quo scenario (i.e., no change in percent immunoreactivity or TB incidence); blue indicates overall M. tuberculosis immunoreactivity; green indicates recent (<2 years) M. tuberculosis immunoreactivity; and purple indicates TB disease risk in the year of immigration to low-incidence country.
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