Volume 32, Number 3—March 2026
Research
Projected Effects of Changing Global Tuberculosis Epidemiology on Mycobacterium tuberculosis Immunoreactivity Prevalence, 2024–2050
Michelle Machado, Aria Ed Jordan, Alvaro Schwalb, Rein M.G.J. Houben, Peter J. Dodd, Katie Dale, Kevin Schwartzman, and Jonathon R. Campbell
Table 2
Projected annual tuberculosis disease incidence among new immigrants in a study of effects of global tuberculosis epidemiology on Mycobacterium tuberculosis prevalence and immunoreactivity, 2024–2050*
| Country | Status quo incidence (95% UI) |
2050 incidence (95% UI) under additional ARI reduction scenarios |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 2050 | Additional 1% reduction | Additional 3% reduction | Additional 5% reduction | ||
| Primary analysis | ||||||
| China | 16.4 (11.0–24.9) | 6.4 (3.0–22.7) | 5.5 (2.7–18.6) | 4.4 (2.3–12.7) | 3.8 (2.1–9.1) | |
| India | 29.7 (20.1–47.4) | 14.5 (6.8–41.9) | 12.7 (6.3–34.7) | 10.1 (5.4–24.2) | 8.5 (4.9–18.3) | |
| Philippines | 47.9 (34.5–72.0) | 27.1 (12.2–76.0) | 23.5 (11.0–65.6) | 18.5 (9.0–48.7) | 15.2 (8.1–36.7) | |
| Vietnam |
30.2 (21.2–47.3) |
12.9 (5.9–53.9) |
11.1 (5.5–45.5) |
9.1 (5.0–32.8) |
7.9 (4.6–24.4) |
|
| Sensitivity analysis† | ||||||
| China | 26.0 (16.9–50.2) | 10.6 (3.7–48.7) | 8.8 (3.4–38.5) | 6.2 (2.9–24.1) | 4.7 (2.4–15.6) | |
| India | 51.1 (30.9–96.4) | 23.5 (9.2–86.9) | 19.5 (8.1–70.1) | 14.2 (6.6–45.8) | 10.8 (5.5–30.5) | |
| Philippines | 83.7 (51.5–139.5) | 48.5 (15.6–149.4) | 39.4 (14.0–122.4) | 27.5 (11.8–86.5) | 20.2 (9.4–61.2) | |
| Vietnam | 46.9 (29.4–92.1) | 20.8 (7.2–113.0) | 17.4 (6.6–92.3) | 12.6 (5.6–61.2) | 9.6 (5.0–38.6) | |
*Annual incidence per 100,000 persons under the status quo scenario and 3 scenarios of additional ARI reduction of 1%, 3%, and 5%. ARI, annual risk for infection; UI, uncertainty interval. †Assuming increased risk for recently acquired M. tuberculosis immunoreactivity.
Page created: February 09, 2026
Page updated: March 25, 2026
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