Skip directly to site content Skip directly to page options Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link

Disclaimer: Early release articles are not considered as final versions. Any changes will be reflected in the online version in the month the article is officially released.

Volume 32, Number 3—March 2026

Research

Projected Effects of Changing Global Tuberculosis Epidemiology on Mycobacterium tuberculosis Prevalence and Immunoreactivity, 2024–2050

Michelle Machado, Aria Ed Jordan, Alvaro Schwalb, Rein M.G.J. Houben, Peter J. Dodd, Katie Dale, Kevin Schwartzman, and Jonathon R. CampbellComments to Author 
Author affiliation: McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada (M. Machado, K. Schwartzman, J.R. Campbell); University of Minnesota Foundation, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA (A.E. Jordan); Instituto de Medicina Tropical Alexander von Humboldt, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru (A. Schwalb); TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK (A. Schwalb, R.M.G.J. Houben); Sheffield Centre for Health and Related Research, School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK (P.J. Dodd); Victorian Tuberculosis Program, Royal Melbourne Hospital, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (K. Dale); The University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne (K. Dale); McGill International TB Centre, Montreal (K. Schwartzman, J.R. Campbell); Centre for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre, Montreal (K. Schwartzman, J.R. Campbell)

Main Article

Table 2

Projected annual tuberculosis disease incidence among new immigrants in a study of effects of global tuberculosis epidemiology on Mycobacterium tuberculosis prevalence and immunoreactivity, 2024–2050*

Country Status quo incidence (95% UI)
 2050 incidence (95% UI) under additional ARI reduction scenarios
2024 2050 Additional 1% reduction Additional 3% reduction Additional 5% reduction
Primary analysis
China 16.4 (11.0–24.9) 6.4 (3.0–22.7) 5.5 (2.7–18.6) 4.4 (2.3–12.7) 3.8 (2.1–9.1)
India 29.7 (20.1–47.4) 14.5 (6.8–41.9) 12.7 (6.3–34.7) 10.1 (5.4–24.2) 8.5 (4.9–18.3)
Philippines 47.9 (34.5–72.0) 27.1 (12.2–76.0) 23.5 (11.0–65.6) 18.5 (9.0–48.7) 15.2 (8.1–36.7)
Vietnam
 30.2 (21.2–47.3)
 12.9 (5.9–53.9)
11.1 (5.5–45.5)
 9.1 (5.0–32.8)
 7.9 (4.6–24.4)
Sensitivity analysis†
China 26.0 (16.9–50.2) 10.6 (3.7–48.7) 8.8 (3.4–38.5) 6.2 (2.9–24.1) 4.7 (2.4–15.6)
India 51.1 (30.9–96.4) 23.5 (9.2–86.9) 19.5 (8.1–70.1) 14.2 (6.6–45.8) 10.8 (5.5–30.5)
Philippines 83.7 (51.5–139.5) 48.5 (15.6–149.4) 39.4 (14.0–122.4) 27.5 (11.8–86.5) 20.2 (9.4–61.2)
Vietnam 46.9 (29.4–92.1) 20.8 (7.2–113.0) 17.4 (6.6–92.3) 12.6 (5.6–61.2) 9.6 (5.0–38.6)

*Annual incidence per 100,000 persons under the status quo scenario and 3 scenarios of additional ARI reduction of 1%, 3%, and 5%. ARI, annual risk for infection; UI, uncertainty interval. †Assuming increased risk for recently acquired M. tuberculosis immunoreactivity.

Main Article

Page created: February 09, 2026
Page updated: February 27, 2026
Page reviewed: February 27, 2026
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
file_external