Table 1

Volume 32, Number 3—March 2026

Projected Effects of Changing Global Tuberculosis Epidemiology on Mycobacterium tuberculosis Immunoreactivity Prevalence, 2024–2050

Michelle Machado, Aria Ed Jordan, Alvaro Schwalb, Rein M.G.J. Houben, Peter J. Dodd, Katie Dale, Kevin Schwartzman, and Jonathon R. Campbell

Author affiliation: McGill University, Montreal, Quebec, Canada (M. Machado, K. Schwartzman, J.R. Campbell); University of Minnesota Foundation, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA (A.E. Jordan); Instituto de Medicina Tropical Alexander von Humboldt, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru (A. Schwalb); TB Modelling Group, TB Centre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK (A. Schwalb, R.M.G.J. Houben); Sheffield Centre for Health and Related Research, School of Medicine and Population Health, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK (P.J. Dodd); Victorian Tuberculosis Program, Royal Melbourne Hospital, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia (K. Dale); The University of Melbourne, at the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity, Melbourne (K. Dale); McGill International TB Centre, Montreal (K. Schwartzman, J.R. Campbell); Centre for Outcomes Research and Evaluation, Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre, Montreal (K. Schwartzman, J.R. Campbell)

Main Article

Projected annual risk for infection in a study of global tuberculosis epidemiology on Mycobacterium tuberculosis immunoreactivity prevalence, 2024–2050*

Country	Status quo ARI, % (95% UI)		2050 ARI, % (95% UI), under additional ARI reduction scenarios
Country	2024	2050	Additional 1% reduction	Additional 3% reduction	Additional 5% reduction
China	0.19 (0.08–0.47)	0.07 (0.01–0.47)	0.05 (0.01–0.35)	0.03 (0.01–0.19)	0.02 (0–0.11)
India	0.48 (0.24–0.95)	0.17 (0.04–0.98)	0.13 (0.03–0.74)	0.07 (0.01–0.41)	0.04 (0.01–0.22)
Philippines	0.98 (0.46–2.2)	0.44 (0.08–2.7)	0.32 (0.06–2.0)	0.18 (0.03–1.1)	0.09 (0.02–0.62)
Vietnam	0.41 (0.13–1.2)	0.16 (0.01–1.7)	0.12 (0.01–1.3)	0.06 (0.01–0.70)	0.03 (0–0.38)

*Analysis of percentage ARI under the status quo scenario and 3 scenarios of additional ARI reduction of 1%, 3%, and 5%. ARI, annual risk for infection; UI, uncertainty interval.

Main Article

Page created: February 09, 2026

Page updated: March 25, 2026

Page reviewed: March 25, 2026

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