Skip directly to site content Skip directly to page options Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link Skip directly to A-Z link
Volume 27, Number 3—March 2021
Research

Daily Forecasting of Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification, United States

Yen Ting LinComments to Author , Jacob Neumann, Ely F. Miller, Richard G. Posner, Abhishek Mallela, Cosmin Safta, Jaideep Ray, Gautam Thakur, Supriya Chinthavali, and William S. Hlavacek
Author affiliations: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA (Y.T. Lin, W.S. Hlavacek); Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA (J. Neumann, E.F. Miller, R.G. Posner); University of California, Davis, California, USA (A. Mallela); Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, California, USA (C. Safta, J. Ray); Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA (G. Thakur, S. Chinthavali)

Main Article

Figure 8

Predictions of the compartmental model for daily new case counts of coronavirus disease in the Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan statistical area, United States, January 21–June 18, 2020. A) Model using 1 initial period of social distancing (n = 0). B) Model using an initial period of social distancing and a subsequent period of reduced adherence to social distancing practices (n = 1). C) The marginal posteriors for the social-distancing setpoint parameter p0 inferred in panel A. D) The marginal posteriors for the social-distancing parameters p0 and p1 inferred in panel B.

Figure 8. Predictions of the compartmental model for daily new case counts of coronavirus disease in the Phoenix, Arizona, metropolitan statistical area, United States, January 21–June 18, 2020. A) Model using 1 initial period of social distancing (n = 0). B) Model using an initial period of social distancing and a subsequent period of reduced adherence to social distancing practices (n = 1). C) The marginal posteriors for the social-distancing setpoint parameter p0 inferred in panel A. D) The marginal posteriors for the social-distancing parameters p0 and p1 inferred in panel B.

Main Article

Page created: January 20, 2021
Page updated: February 21, 2021
Page reviewed: February 21, 2021
The conclusions, findings, and opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the official position of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.
file_external