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Volume 27, Number 3—March 2021

Research

Daily Forecasting of Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification, United States

Yen Ting LinComments to Author , Jacob Neumann, Ely F. Miller, Richard G. Posner, Abhishek Mallela, Cosmin Safta, Jaideep Ray, Gautam Thakur, Supriya Chinthavali, and William S. Hlavacek
Author affiliations: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA (Y.T. Lin, W.S. Hlavacek); Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA (J. Neumann, E.F. Miller, R.G. Posner); University of California, Davis, California, USA (A. Mallela); Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, California, USA (C. Safta, J. Ray); Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA (G. Thakur, S. Chinthavali)

Main Article

Table 3

Description of the fixed parameters of the compartmental model for forecasting regional epidemics of coronavirus disease, United States

Parameter Definition
S0 Initial size of susceptible population*
I0 Initial no. infected individuals†
n No. prior social distancing periods (e.g., 0 or 1)
mb Protective effect of social distancing‡
ρE Relative infectiousness of an exposed person without symptoms during the incubation period§
ρA Relative infectiousness of an asymptomatic person in the immune clearance phase of infection§
kL Rate constant for progression through each stage of the incubation period¶
kQ Rate constant for entry into quarantine for a person without symptoms
jQ Rate constant for entry into quarantine for a person with mild symptoms
fA Fraction of all cases that are asymptomatic
fH Fraction of all cases of severe disease (including patients requiring hospitalization or isolation at home)
fR Fraction of persons with severe disease who eventually recover
cA Rate constant for recovery of asymptomatic persons in the immune clearance phase of infection
cI Rate constant for recovery of symptomatic persons with mild disease or progression to severe disease#
cH Rate constant for recovery of symptomatic persons with severe disease or progression to death**

*Initial susceptible population within a given region is assumed to be the total regional population.
†Assuming that there is initially a single infected, symptomatic person.
‡This parameter defines the reduction in disease transmission caused by the protective effects of social distancing.
§This parameter characterizes infectiousness relative to a symptomatic person with all other factors being equal (i.e., a symptomatic person exhibiting the same social distancing behavior).
¶The incubation period is divided into 5 stages, each of equal duration on average.
#In the model, after a mean waiting time of 1/cI, symptomatic persons with mild disease recover or progress to severe disease.
**In the model, after a mean waiting time of 1/cH, symptomatic persons with severe disease recover or die.

Main Article

Page created: January 20, 2021
Page updated: February 21, 2021
Page reviewed: February 21, 2021
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