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Volume 27, Number 3—March 2021
Research

Daily Forecasting of Regional Epidemics of Coronavirus Disease with Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification, United States

Yen Ting LinComments to Author , Jacob Neumann, Ely F. Miller, Richard G. Posner, Abhishek Mallela, Cosmin Safta, Jaideep Ray, Gautam Thakur, Supriya Chinthavali, and William S. Hlavacek
Author affiliations: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, USA (Y.T. Lin, W.S. Hlavacek); Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, Arizona, USA (J. Neumann, E.F. Miller, R.G. Posner); University of California, Davis, California, USA (A. Mallela); Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, California, USA (C. Safta, J. Ray); Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA (G. Thakur, S. Chinthavali)

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Table 1

Inferred values of parameters in models for forecasting regional epidemics of coronavirus disease, United States

Parameter* Estimate† Definition
t0 33 d Start of transmission
σ 33 d Start of social distancing
p0 0.87 Social distancing setpoint
λ0 0.10/d Social distancing rate
β 2.0/d Disease transmission rate
fD 0.12 Fraction of active cases reported
r 12 Dispersal parameter of NB(r,p)‡

*t0, σ, p0, λ0, and β are adjustable parameters of the compartmental model; fD is a parameter of the auxiliary measurement model; and r is a parameter for the associated statistical model for noise in case detection and reporting.
†All estimates are region-specific and inference-time-dependent. Inferences were conducted daily. These findings reflect the maximum a posteriori estimates inferred for the New York City metropolitan statistical area using all confirmed coronavirus disease case count data available in the GitHub repository maintained by The New York Times newspaper (11) for January 21–June 21, 2020. Time t = 0 corresponds to midnight on January 21, 2020. 
‡The probability parameter of NB(r,p) is constrained (i.e., its reporting-time-dependent value is determined by Appendix 1 Equation 26, https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/EID/article/27/3/20-3364-App1.pdf).

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Page updated: February 21, 2021
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